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Daily Report: Spain Ratings Under Review, Manufacturing Data in FocusRisk aversion remains the main driving force in the markets following late decline in US stocks overnight. Data from China were disappointing and provided no support to risk sentiments. China manufacturing PMI dropped more than expected to 52.1 in June, adding to sign that China's fast growing economy is cooling. Australian retail sales rose less than expected by 0.2% mom in May while building approvals unexpectedly dropped -6.6% in May. Though, Japanese Tankan large manufacturers index turned positive to _1 in Q2 while non-manufacturing index improved to -5. Asian stocks are generally lower with Nikkei down -2.03% to 9191.89. USD/JPY breached recent support of 88.25 and is set to take out 88 level. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
AUD/USD Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 0.8350; (P) 0.8458; (R1) 0.8514; More Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the downside for the moment. Current development suggests that three wave consolidation from 0.8066 has completed at 0.8858 already, just ahead of 61.8% retracement of 0.9380 to 0.8066. Further decline should now be seen to retest 0.8066/8079 support zone first. On the upside, above 0.8566 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral again. |
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| Special Report |
Euro To Resume Weakness After Brief Rebound, ECB On Hold Until 2H11The euro has rebounded broadly since early June despite continued concerns about sovereign crisis in the Eurozone and uncertainty about the banking system. In our opinion, the rebound has been driven by well-received auctions for peripheral European bonds and the fact that the ECB has not been required to purchase a large amount of bonds in the secondary market. At the same time, squaring of extended short euro positions has also helped the currency. |
| Economic Indicators Update |
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Trade Idea: GBP/USD – Sell at 1.5000As the British pound has remained under pressure partly due to cross-selling in sterling, suggesting the decline from 1.5130 top would extend further weakness towards 1.4855-57 (previous support and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.4688 to 1.5130), however, near term oversold condition should prevent sharp fall below there and reckon 1.4800 would hold from here. Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Sell at 1.2295Despite yesterday's rise to 1.2305, the subsequent retreat from there suggests consolidation with downside bias would be seen but break of yesterday's low at 1.2167 is needed to signal decline from 1.2490 has resumed and bring retest of 1.2151, then towards 1.2111-17 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.1876 to 1.2490 and 100% projection of 1.2490 to 1.2209 measuring from 1.2398). | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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