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Daily Report: Dollar and Yen Soft but Momentum Shows HesitationDollar and yen remain generally soft today but selling momentum is weak so far. Overnight's optimism in US stocks triggered by housing data and FedEx's earning forecasts was not carried through to Asian session. Major Asian indices are mixed while crude oil continues to struggle around 79 level. One thing to note is that while yen crosses, except dollar yen, are firm, they all lack decisive momentum o break through near term resistance yet. On the other hand, while dollar's weakness against commodity currencies is apparent, downside momentum against European majors seems to be diminishing mildly. After all, it looks like markets are hesitating to push dollar and yen lower for the moment. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
GBP/USD Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.5424; (P) 1.5472; (R1) 1.5535; More. GBP/USD breaches 1.5521 resistance briefly but is still struggling to take it out decisively yet. Nevertheless, intraday bias remains on the upside with 1.5348 minor support intact. Sustained trading above 1.5521 will confirm that whole fall from 1.7043 has completed at 1.4230 already and target 61.8% retracement of 1.7043 to 1.4230 at 1.5968 next. On the downside, below 1.5348 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. Also, note that failure at 1.5521, followed by break of 1.5123 support, will revive the case that fall from 1.7043 is still in progress and will flip intraday bias back to the downside for another low below 1.4230. |
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| Special Reports |
Speculators Remained Net Sellers Of USD For A Second WeekSpeculators sold -$1.18B last week, bringing the net short positions of USD to –$7.71B in the week ended Jul 20. This is the second week that USD fell in the net short territory and we believe negative economic data triggering worries over a slowdown and ease in sovereign crisis in the Eurozone are the major reasons. Stress Test Result Appeared to be Stronger than Expected. Stringency in QuestionThe CEBS's stress test result was out yesterday. 7 out of 91 European banks failed the test - failed to exceed the 6% Tier 1 capital ratio under the most severe scenario. These banks are Diada (Spain), Espiga (Spain), Unnim (Spain), Banca Civica (Spain), Cajasur (Spain), ATEBank (Greece) and Hypo Real Estate (Germany). According to the CEBS, the estimated aggregate shortfall is 3.5B euro. In a joint statement, the CEBS, ECB, and European commission said that, 'where the results of the exercise indicate that individual banks require additional capital, these banks should take the necessary steps to reinforce their capital positions through private-sector means and by resorting, if necessary, to facilities set up by Member State governments, in full compliance with EU state-aid rules'. |
| Economic Indicators Update |
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Trade Idea: USD/JPY – Hold long entered at 86.90Failure to extend yesterday's rebound from 86.82 and the subsequent retreat suggest caution on our long position entered at 86.90 and 86.55/60 needs to hold to retain bullish prospect for another bounce later today. Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Buy at 1.2930As the single currency has maintained a firm undertone, suggesting recent upmove would resume for test of 1.3028-29 (100% projection of 1.2732 to 1.2966 measuring from 1.2794 and previous high) and break there would extend gain towards 1.3090/00 which is likely to hold from here due to near term overbought condition. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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