Thursday, July 22, 2010

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 7-22-10

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Dollar and Yen Reversed Intraday Rally as Directionless Trading Continues

Markets are basically in a directionless mode with sentiments flip-flop between positive and negative. Pessimism in Asian markets faded in European sessions following a string of solid economic data from Eurozone and UK. However, optimism also fades in early US session after another batch of poor data from US and Canada. Dollar and yen are stuck in range against major currencies, except that noticeable strength in seen in Australian dollar.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 86.77; (P) 87.14; (R1) 87.40; More.

USD/JPY recovers mildly ahead of 86.26 support but still, intraday bias remains cautiously on the downside for the moment. Break of 86.26 will confirm that recent decline has resumed and should target 84.81 key support level next. On the upside, above 87.56 will delay the bearish view and bring more consolidations. But after all, upside is expected to be limited well below 89.14 resistance and bring fall resumption.

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Special Reports

Benign Inflation And Subdued Household Spending Likely To Slow RBNZ's Tightening Path

Although New Zealand's economy has been growing for 4 quarters up to 1Q10 and another positive reading will likely be seen in 2Q10, we think the pace of expansion has moderated. Meanwhile, recent data such as retail sales, housing activities and consumer price index have indicated domestic spending has been rising only gradually. Externally, economic activities in the US and China have shown signs of slowdown while sovereign crisis in the Eurozone is yet to be resolved. We expect the RBNZ to be cautious in tightening its monetary policies.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
04:30 JPY All Industry Activity Index M/M May 0.20% -0.40% 1.80%
07:30 EUR German PMI Manufacturing Jul A 61.2 58 58.4 60.8
07:30 EUR German PMI Services Jul A 57.3 54.5 54.8 54.8
08:00 EUR Eurozone PMI Manufacturing Jul A 56.5 55.2 55.6
08:00 EUR Eurozone PMI Services Jul A 56 55 55.5
08:30 GBP Retail Sales M/M Jun 0.70% 0.50% 0.60% 0.80%
09:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial New Orders M/M May 3.80% -0.10% 0.90% 0.60%
09:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial New Orders Y/Y May 22.70% 20.00% 22.10% 21.90%
12:30 CAD Retail Sales M/M May -0.20% 0.50% -2.00%
12:30 CAD Retail Sales Less Autos M/M May -0.10% 0.50% -1.20%
12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 464K 450K 429K
13:30 USD Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke Testifies to House Financial Committee -- --
14:00 USD Existing Home Sales Jun 5.20M 5.66M
14:00 USD House Price Index M/M May -0.30% 0.80%
14:00 USD Leading Indicators Jun -0.30% 0.40%
14:30 CAD BOC Monetary Policy Report -- --
14:30 USD Natural Gas Storage 53B 78B
Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: EUR/JPY – Sell at 112.00

Euro's decline after breaking indicated support at 111.43 signals top has been formed at 113.40 last week which mark the end of the A leg correction from 107.30 and consolidation with mild downside bias for weakness towards 110.68 (last week's low) and then 110.30 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 107.30 to 113.29).

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Candlesticks and Ichimoku Intraday Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF – Sell at 1.0500

Although dollar has recovered after intra-day selloff to 1.0394 and consolidation would be seen, reckon upside would be limited to the Ichimoku cloud area (now at 1.0505-09) and bring another decline later.

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Trade Idea Update: USD/JPY – Sell at 87.30

As dollar has continued to edge higher after rebounding from 86.34, suggesting further consolidation above recent low at 86.27 would be seen and although gain to the Ichimoku cloud top 87.12 (just above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 87.57 to 86.34 at 87.10) cannot be ruled out, as broad outlook is still consolidative, resistance at 87.57 should cap upside and bring another decline later.

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Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights


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