Monday, July 19, 2010

Action Insight Daily Report 7-19-10

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Daily Report: AUD and NZD Lower on Rates Outlook and Risk Aversio

Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar are both under pressure as the week starts as traders pare bet on rate hike from both RBA and RBNZ in near term. Meanwhile dollar and yen are firm in tight range on risk aversion on broad based weakness in Asian stocks. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index excluding Japan plunged more than 1% with Australia's ASX/S&P Index losing -1.4%. Investors dump stocks amid worries about global economic slowdown in reaction to poor US data released last week.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/CAD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0445; (P) 1.0512; (R1) 1.0647; More.

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains on the upside with 1.0466 minor support intact and further rise should be seen towards 1.0675 resistance. As noted before, price actions from 1.0734 are viewed as sideway consolidation pattern, probably in form of triangle. Break of 1.0675 will argue that such consolidation is completed and rise from 0.9929 low is resuming for another high above 1.0851. On the downside, below 1.0466 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But after all, even in case of another fall, we'd expect downside to be contained by 1.0138 support and finally bring rally resumption.

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:01 GBP Rightmove House Prices M/M Jul -0.60% -- 0.30%
23:01 GBP Rightmove House Prices Y/Y Jul 3.70% -- 5.00%
8:00 EUR Eurozone Current Account (EUR) May -3.0B -5.1B
12:30 CAD International Securities Transactions (CAD) May 8.05B 12.36B
14:00 USD NAHB Housing Market Index Jul 16 17
Candlesticks and Ichimoku Intraday Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: GBP/USD – Sell at 1.5385

Despite last week's rally to 1.5473, the subsequent sharp retreat from there suggests a temporary top has been formed there and consolidation with downside bias is seen for correction of recent upmove to 1.5236-41 support, then 1.5211 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.4949 to 1.5473), however, reckon 1.5149 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) would hold from here and bring rebound later.

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Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Buy at 1.2825

Although euro's retreat after last week's rally to a 9-week high of 1.3008 suggests a minor top has been formed there (Tenkan-Sen crossed below the Kijun-Sen) and correction of recent upmove towards 1.2819-22 (current level of the Ichimoku cloud bottom and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.2522 to 1.3008) cannot be ruled out, renewed buying interest should emerge there and bring rebound later.

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Fundamental Highlights

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