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Daily Report: Dollar and Yen Mildly Higher as Asian Stocks RetreatDollar and yen are mildly higher as Asian equities pare this week's gain. Nikkei's recovery lost momentum, following late selling in US stocks and drops slightly by -0.63% today. Crude oil failed to take out 74 level overnight and is hovering around 72 level now. Dollar index also manages to recovery from overnight low of 83.83 and is back above 84 level. Economic calendar is light today and we might see more consolidations ahead. However, note that recent fall in dollar and yen is clearly losing downside momentum and chance of a near term reversal is starting to grow. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
USD/JPY Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 87.25; (P) 87.61; (R1) 87.89; More. With 4 hours MACD crossed below signal line again, USD/JPY's recovery from 86.96 might be finished already. Intraday bias is cautiously on the downside for 86.96 support. Break there will confirm that recent down trend has resumed and should target key support level of 84.81 low next. On the upside, above 88.19 will indicate that consolidation from 86.96 is still in progress and bring another recovery. But after all, upside is expected to be limited well below 90.27 resistance and bring fall resumption. |
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RBA Monetary Policy Likely To Pause Until 4Q10. Aussie To Fall Further As Growth Affected By ChinaAfter the sharp -8.44% selloff against USD (and -7.21% for the trade-weighted index), Australian dollar's decline stabilized in June but huge volatility remained. Risk appetite has been the main driver of movement in Aussie, as well as other risk-sensitive assets, recently. Given concerns over global economic slowdown, slowdown in FX reserve accumulations and beginning of tightening in other countries while the RBA should leave the policy rate unchanged until the 4th quarter, we expect Aussie to weaken further for the rest of the year and in 2011. Smooth LTRO Expiry Concealed Longer-Term Funding RisksExpiry of ECB's 12-month LTRO, worth 442B euro was replaced by 2 new operations. 131.9B euro was allocated in the 3-month LTRO while 111.2B euro was allocated in the 6-day tender. The total roll was 243.1B euro, reducing the overall excess liquidity by around 200b euro. |
| Economic Indicators Update |
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Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Buy at 1.2520Despite yesterday's resumption of recent upmove to 1.2663, as the single currency has retreated from there, suggesting minor top has been formed and correction to the Ichimoku cloud top (now at 1.2545) cannot be ruled out, however, near term oversold condition should limit downside and renewed buying interest should emerge around the lower Kumo at 1.2519, bring another rally later. Trade Idea: USD/CHF – Stand asideAlthough the greenback resumed recent decline yesterday to a marginal low of 1.0562, lack of follow through selling and the subsequent rebound from there suggest consolidation above this level would be seen and recovery to 1.0660/65 cannot be ruled out, however, only break of resistance at 1.0697 would signal a temporary low has been formed and bring correction of recent decline to 1.0752, otherwise, further sideways trading is in store. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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