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Daily Report: Aussie Firmer after RBA Left Rates UnchangedAussie is mildly firmer after RBA left rates unchanged at 4.50% as widely expected. The accompanying statement delivered little surprise to the markets as the bank is still in 'wait and see' mode, pending " further information about international and local conditions for demand and prices". Though, the statement delivered some optimism as it noted that "consumption spending is recording a modest increase at present " while "business credit appears to have stabilized". However, "growth in China is now starting to moderate to a more sustainable rate: while prospects for Europe for next year are "more uncertain given the budgetary constraints." Also, note that RBA expects CPI to be above 3% in near term due to tobacco taxes and utilities price increases. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
AUD/USD Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 0.8352; (P) 0.8409; (R1) 0.8449; More AUD/USD's strong recover ahead of 0.8315 support indicates that sideway consolidation from there is still in progress. Intraday bias remains neutral and stronger recovery cannot be ruled out. But after all, we'd expect upside to be limited by 0.8594 support turned resistance and bring another fall. As noted before, corrective rise from 0.8066 should have finished with three waves up to 0.8858 already. Below 0.8315 will target a test on 0.8066 first. |
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Smooth LTRO Expiry Concealed Longer-Term Funding RisksExpiry of ECB's 12-month LTRO, worth 442B euro was replaced by 2 new operations. 131.9B euro was allocated in the 3-month LTRO while 111.2B euro was allocated in the 6-day tender. The total roll was 243.1B euro, reducing the overall excess liquidity by around 200b euro. |
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Trade Idea: USD/CHF – Sell at 1.0640As dollar has fallen again after faltering below yesterday's high of 1.0675, suggesting recent decline would resume and break of support at 1.0579 would confirm and extend weakness to 1.0535 (50% projection of 1.0903-1.0579 measuring from 1.0697) and then 1.0495/00 (61.8% projection), however, reckon 1.0445 (1.236 times projection of 1.1547 to 1.0986 measuring from 1.1138) would hold from here. Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Buy at 1.2520Despite intra-day breach of 1.2483 support, lack of follow through selling and the rebound from there suggest correction from 1.2613 has possibly ended and consolidation with upside bias is seen, break of resistance at 1.2613 (last Friday's high)would extend upmove to 1.2685-90 (approx. 50% projection of 1.2193 to 1.2613 measuring from 1.2479), however, loss of near term upward momentum should prevent sharp move beyond there and reckon 1.2739 (61.8% projection) would hold, bring correction later. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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