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Daily Report: Yen Extends Gain as Sentiments Weighed Down by BernankeYen extends gain in Asian as stocks are generally lower on Bernanke's dovish comments overnight. The Fed chairman said that "economic outlook remains unusually uncertain", and Fed "remain prepared to take further policy actions" to restore recovery. The comments reinforced markets' concern that outlook ahead is weaker than it was in first half. Japan Vice Finance Minister Motohisa Ikeda reiterated that excessive yen strength is undesirable to the country's recovery but the comment was ignored by the markets. USD/JPY now heading to have a test on recent low of 86.26. EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY also broke minor support levels which opened the way to retest recent lows of 107.30 and 131.23. |
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GBP/JPY Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 131.11; (P) 132.41; (R1) 133.27; More GBP/JPY's break of 131.49 support indicates that fall from 135.79 has resumed. Also, break of 131.23 support suggests that whole rebound from 126.73 is completed already. Intraday bias is now on the downside for 130.42 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 126.73 to 136.39 at 130.42) will confirm this bearish case and target a retest on 126.73 low next. On the upside, break of 133.72 resistance is needed to indicate that fall from 135.79 is finished. Otherwise, we'll stay cautiously bearish. |
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Benign Inflation And Subdued Household Spending Likely To Slow RBNZ's Tightening PathAlthough New Zealand's economy has been growing for 4 quarters up to 1Q10 and another positive reading will likely be seen in 2Q10, we think the pace of expansion has moderated. Meanwhile, recent data such as retail sales, housing activities and consumer price index have indicated domestic spending has been rising only gradually. Externally, economic activities in the US and China have shown signs of slowdown while sovereign crisis in the Eurozone is yet to be resolved. We expect the RBNZ to be cautious in tightening its monetary policies. |
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Trade Idea: GBP/USD - Sell at 1.5250Yesterday's breach of 1.5154 support confirms the decline from 1.5473 top has resumed and stronger retracement of recent upmove would bring further weakness to 1.5090/00 but reckon 1.5016 (100% projection of 1.5473 to 1.5154 measuring from 1.5335) would hold from there and risk has increased for a rebound later. Trade Idea: EUR/USD - Sell at 1.2835Yesterday's selloff signals recent rise has formed a top at 1.3029 as suggested in our previous update and consolidation with downside bias remains for correction of recent upmove to 1.2716 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.2522 to 1.3029), however, near term oversold condition should prevent sharp fall below 1.2682 support and reckon 1.2615/20 (1.618 times projection of 1.3029 to 1.2839 measuring from 1.2922) would hold form here. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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