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Mid-Day Report: Euro Weighed Down By Portugal Auction, Sterling Volatile after BoE MinutesEuro weakens further today as weakness in crosses continues. Markets remain cautious on the common currency ahead of bank stress test result. Meanwhile, Euro is weighed down mildly by poor bond auction result by Portugal. Yield on the EUR 1.253b 12-month bill sold today more than doubled that was sold in March and averaged as high as 2.452%. Bid to cover ratio was at 1.3, which was also much lower than 3.2% in March auction. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
EUR/CHF Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.3480; (P) 1.3578; (R1) 1.3656; More EUR/CHF's fall from 1.3674 extends further to day and intraday bias is mildly on the downside for the moment. Break of 1.3434 support turned resistance will indicate that rebound from 1.3072 is finished and will target 1.3072 low first. Break will confirm down trend resumption for 1.3 psychological level next. On the upside, above 1.3578 minor resistance will flip intraday bias back to the upside for another rise. Nevertheless, we'd expect strong resistance below 1.3733 to bring reversal finally. |
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BOC Hiked Rate by +25 bps, Reduced Growth ForecastsThe Bank of Canada raised the overnight rate by another +25 bps to 0.75% in July. The central bank also raised the bank rate and discount rate by +25 bps to 1% and 0.50%, respectively. Concerning economic outlook, the BOC revised down slightly 2010 and 2011 forecasts but 2012 outlook was upgraded. Concerns Over European Sovereign Crisis Ebbed, Stress Tests In FocusWhile broad market sentiment remains volatile as driven by economic data released in the US and China, as well as mixed corporate earnings results, concerns about sovereign crisis in the Eurozone has eased in recently weeks as banks requested lower amount of money from ECB's LTRO after the 12-month LTRO expired on June 30. |
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Trade Idea: AUD/USD – Buy at 0.8700As aussie has maintained a firm undertone, suggesting a test of 0.8871-84 (previous resistance and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 0.9389-0.8066), however, break there is needed to extend recent rise to 0.8920/30 but reckon 0.8975/80 would limit upside and psychological resistance at 0.9000 should hold from here and bring retreat later. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Candlesticks and Ichimoku Intraday Trade Ideas | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF – Buy at 1.0455As price has remained confined within indicated range of 1.0446-1.0561, we are keeping our view that further choppy movements within this trading band is in store and although intra-day retreat from 1.0543 may bring weakness to the Ichimoku cloud bottom (now at 1.0480), renewed buying interest should emerge around support at 1.0446-53, bring another rebound later. Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD – Sell at 1.2900Euro's breach of 1.2839 support confirms temporary top has been formed at 1.3029 yesterday and mild downside bias remains for retracement of recent rise to minor support at 1.2776-78 (previous resistance as well as 50% Fibonacci retracement), however, near term oversold condition should prevent sharp fall below 1.2715/20 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) and bring rebound later. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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