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Mid-Day Report: Swiss Franc Lower on Weak CPI, Dollar Soft on Risk AppetiteSwiss Franc is mildly lower today after consumer inflation report. CPI in June dropped -0.4% mom, rose 0.5% yoy versus consensus of -0.1% mom, 1.0% yoy. Recent strength in Swiss Franc was driven by SNB's message of disappearing deflation risk, which led to exit of intervention. However, SNB has also made it clear that they would resume interventions should deflation risks return. Today's data might be viewed as a threat to SNB. Meanwhile, EUR/CHF accelerated after breaking 1.4 level decisively and reached as low as 1.3072 before recovering, which was close to 1.3 psychological level. We might seen some support from 1.3 in near term. |
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USD/CHF Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.0618; (P) 1.0645; (R1) 1.0672; More. USD/CHF dips lower to 1.0562 not there's no follow through selling so far. Nevertheless, intraday bias remains on the downside with 1.0695 minor resistance and current decline would 1.0434 support next. On the upside, above 1.0695 will indicate that a temporary low is formed and bring recovery. But after all, risk remains on the downside as long as 1.1009 resistance holds and another fall remains in favor. |
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RBA Monetary Policy Likely To Pause Until 4Q10. Aussie To Fall Further As Growth Affected By ChinaAfter the sharp -8.44% selloff against USD (and -7.21% for the trade-weighted index), Australian dollar's decline stabilized in June but huge volatility remained. Risk appetite has been the main driver of movement in Aussie, as well as other risk-sensitive assets, recently. Given concerns over global economic slowdown, slowdown in FX reserve accumulations and beginning of tightening in other countries while the RBA should leave the policy rate unchanged until the 4th quarter, we expect Aussie to weaken further for the rest of the year and in 2011. Smooth LTRO Expiry Concealed Longer-Term Funding RisksExpiry of ECB's 12-month LTRO, worth 442B euro was replaced by 2 new operations. 131.9B euro was allocated in the 3-month LTRO while 111.2B euro was allocated in the 6-day tender. The total roll was 243.1B euro, reducing the overall excess liquidity by around 200b euro. |
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Trade Idea: AUD/USD – Short entered at 0.8500 met target at 0.8320 and look to sell again on recoverThe Australian dollar fell to as low as 0.8317 this morning (just met our indicated downside target at 0.8320 and our short position made 180 points profit on such a move), however, as aussie has then staged a strong rebound after holding above previous support at 0.8315, suggesting further consolidation would be seen and test of Friday's high at 0.8510 cannot be ruled out, break there would bring stronger rebound to 0.8565/70 but reckon 0.8595/00 would cap upside, bring another decline later. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD – Buy at 1.5135Cable's intra-day strong rebound from 1.5081 to 1.5208 suggests the correction from 1.5230 has ended there and consolidation with upside bias remains but break of said resistance is needed to signal upmove has resumed and extend gain to 1.5260 (50% projection of 1.4873 to 1.5230 measuring from 1.5081) but reckon 1.5300/05 (61.8% projection) would hold from here. Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD – Buy at 1.2545Euro's intra-day strong rebound from 1.2479 signals the correction from 1.2613 has ended there and break of this Friday's high would extend upmove to 1.2685-90 (approx. 50% projection of 1.2193 to 1.2613 measuring from 1.2479), however, loss of near term upward momentum should prevent sharp move beyond there and reckon 1.2739 (61.8% projection) would hold, bring correction later. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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