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Mid-Day Report: Risk Rally Takes a Breathe, Dollar and Yen Recover MildlyRisk rally is taking a breathe as European stocks pare gains and retreat mildly. Nevertheless, we're not seeing any massive profit taking yet as the reaction to disappointing US retail sales is muted so far. Headline sales dropped more than expected by -0.5% in June while ex-auto sales also dropped -0.2%. Import price index dropped -1.3% mom in June. The recovery in dollar and yen remain unconvincing and we'd probably continue to see more downside ahead in US session. | |
| Featured Technical Report | |
USD/CHF Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.0541; (P) 1.0608; (R1) 1.0670; More. USD/CHF's sideway consolidation from 1.0479 is still in progress and intraday bias remains neutral. Another rise cannot be ruled out but still, there is no indication of reversal as long as 1.1009 resistance holds and another fall is still in favor. Break of 1.0479 will confirm fall resumption towards 1.0434 support next. |
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| Special Report |
SNB to Resume Intervention SoonSwiss franc surged against the euro and the dollar by -7.22% and -6.37% respectively in June with the rallies accelerated after SNB's meeting on June 17. The central bank raised its inflation forecasts and stated that the deflationary risk in Switzerland has largely disappeared. At the same time, the SNB did not reiterate the stance to 'act decisively to prevent an excessive appreciation of the Swiss franc against the euro' although the franc has strengthened +8% against the euro over the past 6 months. This indicated the SNB's increased tolerance to the decline of EURCHF. |
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| Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Trade Idea: EUR/JPY Long entered at 110.70 met target at 112.60 and buy again at 111.75The single currency found decent demand at 110.68 yesterday as expected in our previous update (we entered long at 110.70) and price then rallied in line with our anticipation, reached our indicated upside target at 112.60 (with 190 points profit). Trade Idea: AUD/USD Exit short entered at 0.8850As aussie has maintained a firm undertone on risk appetite, suggesting near term upside risk remains for a test of resistance at 0.8860, break there would exetnd the rise from 0.8066 low (A leg bottom) to 0.8884 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of wave A from 0.9389), however, reckon 0.8950/60 would limit upside due to near term overbought condition. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF Sell at 1.0640Although dollar has retreated after intra-day cross-inspired rebound from 1.0515 to 1.0618 and further choppy consolidation would take place, renewed selling interest should emerge around minor resistance at 1.0646 and bring another decline later. Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD Buy at 1.2635Euro's near term sideways trading is expected to continue and as long as yesterday's high at 1.2739 holds, mild downside bias is seen for retracement to the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.2652) and the Ichimoku cloud top (now at 1.2622) would hold, bring another upmove. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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