Wednesday, July 14, 2010

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 7-14-10

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Risk Rally Takes a Breathe, Dollar and Yen Recover Mildly

Risk rally is taking a breathe as European stocks pare gains and retreat mildly. Nevertheless, we're not seeing any massive profit taking yet as the reaction to disappointing US retail sales is muted so far. Headline sales dropped more than expected by -0.5% in June while ex-auto sales also dropped -0.2%. Import price index dropped -1.3% mom in June. The recovery in dollar and yen remain unconvincing and we'd probably continue to see more downside ahead in US session.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0541; (P) 1.0608; (R1) 1.0670; More.

USD/CHF's sideway consolidation from 1.0479 is still in progress and intraday bias remains neutral. Another rise cannot be ruled out but still, there is no indication of reversal as long as 1.1009 resistance holds and another fall is still in favor. Break of 1.0479 will confirm fall resumption towards 1.0434 support next.

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Special Report

SNB to Resume Intervention Soon

Swiss franc surged against the euro and the dollar by -7.22% and -6.37% respectively in June with the rallies accelerated after SNB's meeting on June 17. The central bank raised its inflation forecasts and stated that the deflationary risk in Switzerland has largely disappeared. At the same time, the SNB did not reiterate the stance to 'act decisively to prevent an excessive appreciation of the Swiss franc against the euro' although the franc has strengthened +8% against the euro over the past 6 months. This indicated the SNB's increased tolerance to the decline of EURCHF.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
22:45 NZD Retail Sales M/M May 0.40% 0.50% -0.30%
22:45 NZD Retail Sales Ex-Auto M/M May -0.20% 0.60% -0.20% -0.10%
23:01 GBP Nationwide Consumer Confidence Jun 63 62 65 66
00:30 AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence Jul 11.10% -- -5.70%
08:30 GBP Claimant Count Change Jun -20.8K -20.0K -30.9K -31.1K
08:30 GBP Claimant Count Rate Jun 4.50% 4.50% 4.60%
08:30 GBP ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) May 7.80% 7.90% 7.90%
09:00 EUR Eurozone CPI M/M Jun 0.00% 0.00% 0.10%
09:00 EUR Eurozone CPI Y/Y Jun F 1.40% 1.40% 1.40%
09:00 EUR Eurozone CPI - Core Y/Y Jun 0.90% 0.90% 0.80%
09:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial Production M/M May 0.90% 1.20% 0.80% 0.90%
09:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial Production Y/Y May 9.40% 11.40% 9.50% 9.60%
12:30 USD Import Price Index M/M Jun -1.30% -0.40% -0.60%
12:30 USD Advance Retail Sales Jun -0.50% -0.20% -1.20%
12:30 USD Retail Sales Less Autos Jun -0.10% -0.10% -1.10%
14:00 USD Business Inventories May 0.40% 0.40%
14:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories -1.1M -4961K
18:00 USD FOMC Meeting Minutes -- --
Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: EUR/JPY – Long entered at 110.70 met target at 112.60 and buy again at 111.75

The single currency found decent demand at 110.68 yesterday as expected in our previous update (we entered long at 110.70) and price then rallied in line with our anticipation, reached our indicated upside target at 112.60 (with 190 points profit).

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Trade Idea: AUD/USD – Exit short entered at 0.8850

As aussie has maintained a firm undertone on risk appetite, suggesting near term upside risk remains for a test of resistance at 0.8860, break there would exetnd the rise from 0.8066 low (A leg bottom) to 0.8884 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of wave A from 0.9389), however, reckon 0.8950/60 would limit upside due to near term overbought condition.

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Candlesticks and Ichimoku Intraday Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF – Sell at 1.0640

Although dollar has retreated after intra-day cross-inspired rebound from 1.0515 to 1.0618 and further choppy consolidation would take place, renewed selling interest should emerge around minor resistance at 1.0646 and bring another decline later.

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Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD – Buy at 1.2635

Euro's near term sideways trading is expected to continue and as long as yesterday's high at 1.2739 holds, mild downside bias is seen for retracement to the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.2652) and the Ichimoku cloud top (now at 1.2622) would hold, bring another upmove.

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Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights


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