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Mid-Day Report: Euro Volatile on Mixed News, Dollar Rebound FadesEuro is rather volatile today on mixed news. Portugal's sovereign bond ratings was cut two notches by Moody's from Aa2 to A1. Moody's said that "Portuguese government's financial strength will continue to weaken over the medium term," and expects the debt situation to continue to deteriorate for at least another two to three years" before stabilizing. German ZEW investor confidence hit 15 month low of 21.2 in June, much worse than expectation of 25.3. However, Euro is supported as Greece auction of 6 months T-bills was well received. Greece sold EUR 1.626b of 6 month T-bills today with bid-to cover ration at 3.64. Also, the rate was at 4.65%, which was lower than the 5% charged by EU for its bailout package. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
EUR/USD Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.2549; (P) 1.2598 (R1) 1.2645; More. At this point, intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on cautiously on the downside with 1.2613 minor resistance intact. Below 1.2479 minor support will indicate that recovery from 1.1875 is finished and bring deeper fall to 1.2149 support first. Break will confirm this bearish case and target another low below 1.1875. On the upside, above 1.2613 will turn intraday bias neutral again. Also, note that sustained trading above the trend line (now at 1.2698) will invalidate bearish view and bring stronger rally towards 1.3266 resistance instead. |
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Trade Idea: EUR/JPY – Hold long entered at 110.70Despite intra-day fall to 110.68, as the move from 112.69 is still viewed as retracement of recent upmove, downside should be limited and bring rebound later and above intra-day resistance at 112.08 signal pullback has ended and bring retest of said resistance, break there would confirm the rise from 107.30 low (wave v bottom) has resumed for a stronger retracement of recent decline to 113.03 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 122.29 to 107.30) Trade Idea: AUD/USD – Sell at 0.8850Aussie's rebound after holding above indicated minor support at 0.8620/25 suggests near term upside risk remains for the rise from 0.8315 to extend marginal rise and above 0.8794 would extend gain towards 0.8860, however, as broad outlook is still consolidative, reckon upside would be limited to 0.8884 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of wave A from 0.9389) and bring retreat later. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Candlesticks and Ichimoku Intraday Trade Ideas | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF – Hold long entered at 1.0627Despite intra-day bounce to 1.0646, the retreat from there suggests caution on our long position and minor support at 1.0582 needs to hold to retain bullishness for another rise to 1.0676, break there would signal the rise from 1.0481 low has resumed for a stronger retracement of recent decline to 1.0692-97 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.0903 to 1.0481 and previous resistance) but reckon 1.0742-52 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.0903 to 1.0481 and previous resistance) would hold from here. Trade Idea Update: USD/JPY – Buy at 87.80Although dollar has recovered after intra-day fall to 88.19, as long as indicated resistance at 88.87 holds, downside risk remains and another corrective decline to support at 88.00 cannot be ruled out, however, reckon 87.80 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 86.96 to 89.15) would attract renewed buying interest and bring another rise later. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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