Wednesday, July 28, 2010

Action Insight Daily Report 7-28-10

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Daily Report: Yen Crosses Extend Rally, Aussie Left Behind after Tame CPI

Yen crosses continue to march higher as the Japanese yen is broadly pressured on risk appetite trades as stocks are boosted by strong earning reports from Canon Inc. Nikkei jumped 2.7% while MSCI Asia Pacific Index also rose over 1%. Both EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY extend recent rise after taking out 113.40 and 136.39 resistance yesterday. Nevertheless, selling pressure in dollar is much less apparent after worse than expected consumer confidence data released overnight. Meanwhile, Australian dollar is lagging behind and the Aussie tumbles after tamer than expected consumer inflation reading. US durable goods, Fed's Beige Book and RBNZ rate decision will be the main focus in the next 24 hours.

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Featured Technical Report

EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.18; (P) 113.80; (R1) 114.83; More

EUR/JPY's rally is still in progress and reaches as high as 114.72 so far. Intraday bias remains on the upside for 100% projection of 107.30 to 113.36 at 110.00 at 116.06 next and possibly further to 38.2% retracement of 139.21 to 107.30 at 119.48. On the downside, below 113.40 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring retreat. But short term outlook will remain bullish as long as 110.00 support holds.

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
1:30 AUD CPI Q/Q Q2 0.60% 1.00% 0.90%
1:30 AUD CPI Y/Y Q2 3.10% 3.40% 2.90%
1:30 AUD CPI RBA Trimmed Mean Q/Q Q2 0.50% 0.80% 0.80%
1:30 AUD CPI RBA Trimmed Mean Y/Y Q2 2.70% 3.00% 3.00%
1:30 AUD CPI RBA Weighted Median Q/Q Q2 0.50% 0.80% 0.80%
1:30 AUD CPI RBA Weighted Median Y/Y Q2 2.70% 3.00% 3.10%
3:00 NZD NBNZ Business Confidence Jul 27.9 -- 40.2
12:30 USD Durable Goods Orders Jun 0.80% -1.10%
12:30 USD Durables Ex Transportation Jun 0.50% 0.90%
14:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories -1.4M 0.4M
18:00 USD Fed Beige Book Economic Report -- --
21:00 NZD RBNZ Interest Rate Decision 3.00% 2.75%
-- EUR German CPI M/M Jul P 0.30% 0.10%
-- EUR German CPI Y/Y Jul P 1.20% 0.90%
Candlesticks and Ichimoku Intraday Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: USD/JPY – Buy at 87.50

As the greenback has maintained a firm undertone after yesterday's rally to 87.97, suggesting the rise from 86.27 low is still in progress and further gain to 88.02-03 (previous support and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 89.12 to 86.27) is under way, above there would extend to 88.50/60 but reckon loss of near term upward momentum would limit upside to resistance area at 89.12-15 and risk from there has increased for a retreat later.

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Trade Idea: GBP/USD – Buy at 1.5500

Although current breach of 1.5600 signals recent upmove is still in progress and may extend gain to 1.5645/50 (50% projection of 1.5125 to 1.5530 measuring from 1.5443), loss of near term upward momentum should prevent sharp move beyond there and reckon 1.5690/95 (61.8% projection) would hold from here, bring correction later.

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Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

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