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Daily Report: Focus on BoE Minutes and Bernanke TestimonySterling continues to pare this week's loss against dollar and Euro as traders await BoE minutes of July meeting. The discussion among the MPC members on the impact of the emergency austerity plan would particularly be noted. Andrew Sentance was the sole dissenter in June, who voted by a 25bps hike. Based on recent comments, it's likely that Sentance has voted for hike again in July too but he'll likely be the alone again. Sterling has noticeably lost some strength this week but the loss is so far limited. The next few days will be important in determining the near term direction with retail sales and Q2 GDP featured. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
EUR/GBP Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 0.8401; (P) 0.8466; (R1) 0.8502; More. With 4 hours MACD saying well below signal line, a temporary top is in place at 0.8530 and some consolidations would be seen first. But still, downside is expected to be contained by 0.8316 support and bring another rise. Note that we're favoring the case that whole medium term correction from 0.9799 is finished at 0.8067 already. Above 0.8530 will target 0.8601 and then 0.9 psychological level. However, decisive break of 0.8316 will dampen this bullish view and turn focus back to 0.8067 low instead. |
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BOC Hiked Rate by +25 bps, Reduced Growth ForecastsThe Bank of Canada raised the overnight rate by another +25 bps to 0.75% in July. The central bank also raised the bank rate and discount rate by +25 bps to 1% and 0.50%, respectively. Concerning economic outlook, the BOC revised down slightly 2010 and 2011 forecasts but 2012 outlook was upgraded. Concerns Over European Sovereign Crisis Ebbed, Stress Tests In FocusWhile broad market sentiment remains volatile as driven by economic data released in the US and China, as well as mixed corporate earnings results, concerns about sovereign crisis in the Eurozone has eased in recently weeks as banks requested lower amount of money from ECB's LTRO after the 12-month LTRO expired on June 30. |
| Economic Indicators Update |
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Trade Idea: USD/CHF – Buy at 1.0455Although the greenback staged a strong rebound after holding above indicated support at 1.0446, intra-day retreat from 1.0543 suggests further consolidation would take place and another fall towards support area at 1.0446-1.0453 cannot be ruled out, however, reckon 1.0400 would hold and bring another rebound later. Trade Idea: USD/JPY – Sell at 87.85Although the greenback has retreated after rising to 87.57 yesterday and consolidation with mild downside bias would be seen, break of indicated minor support at 86.45 is needed to signal correction from 86.27 has ended there and bring resumption of recent decline for retest of said support, then towards 85.90/00, otherwise, further choppy consolidation would be seen. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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