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| Action Insight | Candlesticks Trades | Markets Summary | Action Bias | Top Movers | Daily Technicals |
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| Action Insight Market Overview | Markets Snapshot |
Daily Report: Sentiments Hurt by China Growth Data, Spain Bone Auction WatchedYen is mildly higher today as Asian stocks are dragged down by China growth data. China's GDP expansion slowed more than expected to 10.3% QoY in Q2 while industrial production also slowed more than expected to 13.7% yoy in June. Nikkei is down -1.12% while Shanghai composite also dropped -1.85%. AUD/JPY leads the top movers chart by falling over -1% on risk aversion. Risk rally started to cool overnight after Fed delivered a dovish FOMC minutes and dollar and yen would probably continue to consolidate today. Though, result of Spain's auction of EUR 3b of debt today would probably trigger another round of volatility in the markets. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
AUD/USD Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 0.8799; (P) 0.8835; (R1) 0.8885; More AUD/USD breached 0.8858 resistance to 0.8870 briefly but retreats sharply since then. Intraday bias is turned neutral for the moment. Note that another rise remains in favor as long as 0.8682 minor support holds and above 0.8870 will target 100% projection of 0.8079 to 0.8858 from 0.8315 at 0.9094 next. However, break of 0.8682 will indicate that whole rise from 0.8315 is finished and will flip bias back to the downside for lower trend line support (now at 0.8394). |
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| Special Report |
The Fed Downgraded Growth Forecasts, But The Overall Tone Not Too PessimisticThe June FOMC minutes unveiled that policymakers downgraded economic forecasts for 2010 slightly as a number of members saw the risks to the outlook as having shifted to the downside. The tone of the minutes was dovish but it was largely expected as the Fed released the meeting statement on June 23. The Fed did not discuss much about exiting stimulus but the changes to the outlook were 'viewed as relatively modest and as not warranting policy accommodation beyond that already in place'. SNB to Resume Intervention SoonSwiss franc surged against the euro and the dollar by -7.22% and -6.37% respectively in June with the rallies accelerated after SNB's meeting on June 17. The central bank raised its inflation forecasts and stated that the deflationary risk in Switzerland has largely disappeared. At the same time, the SNB did not reiterate the stance to 'act decisively to prevent an excessive appreciation of the Swiss franc against the euro' although the franc has strengthened +8% against the euro over the past 6 months. This indicated the SNB's increased tolerance to the decline of EURCHF. |
| Economic Indicators Update |
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Trade Idea: USD/CHF – Sell at 1.0610As dollar has fallen after meeting renewed selling at 1.0618 and the breach of 1.0515 support suggests correction from 1.0481 is over and recent decline should resume after consolidation, however, break of said support is needed to extend weakness towards previous chart support at 1.0435 but near term oversold condition should limit downside to 1.0400. Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Buy at 1.2635Although the single currency resumed recent rise to 1.2778 yesterday, the quick retreat from there suggests consolidation would be seen and below intra-day minor support at 1.2708 would bring retracement to 1.2675-82 (current level of the Ichimoku cloud top and previous support), however, renewed buying interest should emerge around 1.2630/35 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.2522 to 1.2739 and current level of the lower Kumo) and bring another upmove. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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