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Mid-Day Report: ECB and BoE on Hold, Risk Rally ContinuesRisk rally continues in early US session as jobless claims dropped slightly more than expected to 454k. European stocks are generally higher today with FTSE up 1.8%, DAX up 0.7% and CAC 40 up 1.75%. Crude oil remains firm and continues to press 75 level. Dollar and yen remain generally weak against commodity currencies. However, European majors clearly lag behind. ECB and BoE both left rates unchanged as widely expected. In the post meeting press conference, ECB Trichet said that the current interest rates are "appropriate" and inflation expectations in Eurozone remained well "anchored". |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
GBP/USD Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.5105; (P) 1.5162; (R1) 1.5243; More. Upside momentum in GBP/USD continues to diminish but still another rise cannot be ruled out with 1.4873 intact. However, we'd still expect strong resistance between 1.5240 fibo level and channel resistance at 1.5268 to conclude the corrective rise from 1.4230 and bring reversal. Break of 1.4873 will argue that rebound from 1.4230 is completed and will flip bias back to the downside for retesting this low. |
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Austere Fiscal Policies Supporting The Pound Will Weigh On It LaterThe emergency Budget released on June 22 demonstrated the new UK government's commitments to reduce the country's huge deficits. The aggressive fiscal policy has reduced the risk premium of sterling and is a key factor for the currency's strength against the dollar and, to a greater extent, the euro. While GBP may remain firm in the near-term, risk aversion and lower growth expectations should weigh on the currency in the medium-term. Yet, although the pound may weaken against the dollar in coming months, it should stay relatively strong against the euro. Regarding monetary policy, the BOE is at a dilemma in making rate decisions as austere fiscal measures are poised to affect growth but increase inflationary pressure through VAT hike. While the debate on whether to hike or not will continue in coming BOE meetings we expect policymakers will leave rates unchanged for the rest of the year. This should also limit upside of GBPUSD. |
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Trade Idea: EUR/JPY – Buy at 110.20Although the single currency fell to 109.32 yesterday, as support at 109.14 has held, the currency pair rallied from there on risk appetite, this move retained our bullish count that wave v has ended at 107.30 and upside bias is seen for correction of recent decline to 112.50, then towards 113.03 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 122.29 to 107.30), however, resistance at 113.43 should remain intact and bring another decline in wave 3. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD – Buy at 1.5100Although cable's intra-day retreat from 1.5241 suggests a temporary top has been formed and consolidation with mild downside bias would be seen for retracement to 1.5100 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.4873 to 1.5241), however, reckon support at 1.5081/82 would hold and bring another rally later. Trade Idea Update: USD/JPY – Buy at 87.60Dollar's retreat after intra-day rise to 88.47 suggests consolidation below this level would continue and although retracement to the Kijun-Sen (now at 87.77) is likely, reckon the Ichimoku cloud area (now at 87.40-50) would hold and bring another rally later. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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