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Mid-Day Report: EUR/USD Fails to Sustain Above 1.3 as Risk Aversion Strikes BackEuro is somewhat hit by risk aversion and retreat sharply after jumping initially to 1.3027 against dollar and fails to sustain above 1.30 level. EUR/JPY also bounces off from 113.40 resistance again. US housing starts fell more than expected to 549k in June, hitting the lowest level since last October. Building permits, though, rose slightly to 586k. Sentiments is also weighed down by news that Goldman Sachs' profit dropped -82% in Q2 and missed expectations. Sterling, on the other hand is pressured by a string of weak data released earlier today. Canadian dollar is also soft after a dovish rate hike from BoC. |
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USD/CAD Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.0504; (P) 1.0542; (R1) 1.0586; More. USD/CAD's break of 1.0580 suggests that rise from 1.0275 has resumed after brief consolidations and further rally should be seen to 1.0675 resistance first. As noted before, price actions from 1.0734 are viewed as sideway consolidation pattern, probably in form of triangle. Break of 1.0675 resistance will argue that such consolidation is completed and rise from 0.9929 low is resuming for another high above 1.0851. On the downside, in case of another fall, we'd expect downside to be contained by 1.0138 support and finally bring rally resumption. |
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Benign Inflation And Subdued Household Spending Likely To Slow RBNZ's Tightening PathAlthough New Zealand's economy has been growing for 4 quarters up to 1Q10 and another positive reading will likely be seen in 2Q10, we think the pace of expansion has moderated. Meanwhile, recent data such as retail sales, housing activities and consumer price index have indicated domestic spending has been rising only gradually. Externally, economic activities in the US and China have shown signs of slowdown while sovereign crisis in the Eurozone is yet to be resolved. We expect the RBNZ to be cautious in tightening its monetary policies. Concerns Over European Sovereign Crisis Ebbed, Stress Tests In FocusWhile broad market sentiment remains volatile as driven by economic data released in the US and China, as well as mixed corporate earnings results, concerns about sovereign crisis in the Eurozone has eased in recently weeks as banks requested lower amount of money from ECB's LTRO after the 12-month LTRO expired on June 30. |
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Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF – Buy at 1.0450Failure to extend intra-day rebound from 1.0485 suggests further choppy consolidation is in store and break of said support would bring weakness towards 1.0446 (yesterday's low), however, if our view that a temporary low formed at 1.0400 is correct, downside would be limited and this support should remain intact, bring another rebound later. Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD – Sell at 1.5320Although cable has broken below support at 1.5203 in part due to active cross-selling against Japanese yen on risk aversion, near term oversold condition should prevent sharp fall below 1.5149 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.4949-1.5473) and reckon 1.5085/90 would hold from here, bring rebound later today. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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