Friday, July 9, 2010

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 7-9-10

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Canadian Dollar Soars on Stellar Job Report

Canadian dollar soars in early US session after release of much stronger than expected employment data. The job market in Canada added 93.2k jobs in June, more than four times expectation of 20k. Unemployment rate dropped from 8.1% to 7.9%, lowest level since January 2009. Also, note that the Canadian economy added more than 400k jobs since July 2009 and has recouped almost all the lost since recession began in second half of 2008. Canadian dollar jumps against other major currencies after the release with USD/CAD diving to as low as 1.0334. 1.03 level now looks vulnerable.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/CAD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0369; (P) 1.0427; (R1) 1.0477; More.

USD/CAD's fall from 1.0675 accelerated to as low as 1.0325 in early US session and at this point, intraday bias remains on the downside as long as 1.0452 minor resistance holds. Break of 1.0319 support will indicate that rebound from 1.0138 is completed. In such case, deeper decline would be seen to lower part of recent range at 1.0138. On the upside, above 1.0452 will turn intraday bias neutral and turn focus back to 1.0675 resistance.

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ECB Left Policy Rates Unchanged, Feeling no Surprise on Money Market Rate Hikes

The ECB announced to keep the main refinancing rate at 1% in July. At the accompanying statement, President Trichet reiterated that the current key ECB interest rates as 'appropriate' while the risks to the economic outlook are 'broadly balanced', in an environment of high uncertainty.

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Austere Fiscal Policies Supporting The Pound Will Weigh On It Later

The emergency Budget released on June 22 demonstrated the new UK government's commitments to reduce the country's huge deficits. The aggressive fiscal policy has reduced the risk premium of sterling and is a key factor for the currency's strength against the dollar and, to a greater extent, the euro. While GBP may remain firm in the near-term, risk aversion and lower growth expectations should weigh on the currency in the medium-term. Yet, although the pound may weaken against the dollar in coming months, it should stay relatively strong against the euro. Regarding monetary policy, the BOE is at a dilemma in making rate decisions as austere fiscal measures are poised to affect growth but increase inflationary pressure through VAT hike. While the debate on whether to hike or not will continue in coming BOE meetings we expect policymakers will leave rates unchanged for the rest of the year. This should also limit upside of GBPUSD.

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Economic Indicators Update


GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
6:00 EUR German CPI M/M Jun F 0.10% 0.10% 0.10%
6:00 EUR German CPI Y/Y Jun F 0.90% 0.90% 0.90%
8:30 GBP Visible Trade Balance (GBP) May -8.1B -7.1B -7.3B -7.4B
8:30 GBP PPI Input M/M Jun -0.20% -0.40% -0.60% -0.20%
8:30 GBP PPI Input Y/Y Jun 10.70% 10.20% 11.20% 11.50%
8:30 GBP PPI Output M/M Jun -0.30B 0.10% 0.30% 0.10%
8:30 GBP PPI Output Y/Y Jun 5.10% 5.70% 5.70% 5.50%
8:30 GBP PPI Output Core Y/Y Jun 4.80% 5.10% 4.40%
11:00 CAD Net Change in Employment Jun 93.2K 20.0K 24.7K
11:00 CAD Unemployment Rate Jun 7.90% 8.10% 8.10%
12:15 CAD Housing Starts Jun 193.0K 189.1K
14:00 USD Wholesale Inventories May 0.40% 0.40%
Candlesticks and Ichimoku Intraday Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF – Sell at 1.0630

Intra-day rebound adds credence to our view that further consolidation above yesterday's low at 1.0481 would be seen and price just reached indicated retracement target at the Ichimoku cloud top and gain to 1.0600 cannot be ruled out, however, renewed selling interest should emerge below 1.0637/42 (previous resistance and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.0903 to 1.0481) and bring another decline later.

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Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD – Buy at 1.2555

Despite intra-day marginal rise to 1.2723, as the single currency has retreated from there, suggesting a minor top has been formed and consolidation below there would be seen with mild downside bias for retracement to the Ichimoku cloud bottom (now at 1.2603), however, renewed buying interest should emerge around previous support at 1.2553 and bring another upmove.

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Fundamental Highlights

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