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Daily Report: Markets Steady as Traders Await UK GDP and EU Bank Stress Test ResultsThe forex markets are steady today as traders await EU bank stress test result as well as UK Q2 GDP preliminary release. The Committee of European Banking Supervisors will release results of the stress tests on European banks today at 1600 GMT. 91 banks were tested, which represents 65% of EU's banking sector. There were rumors flying around this week, on which banks have failed, and on what scenarios were tested and all these questions would be answered today. The main question is, like every other release, on market's reaction. Whether Euro could surge pass 1.3 level again will reflect whether the test details and results are well received by investors. So be prepared for a volatile ride today. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
USD/CHF Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.0376; (P) 1.0445; (R1) 1.0496; More. USD/CHF drew some support from 1.0399 low and recovers. But still, intraday bias remains cautiously on the downside and decisive break of 1.0399 will confirm that decline from 1.1729 has resumed. In such case, next target will be outer trend line support (0.9634, 0.9916, now at 1.0017). On the upside, above 1.0559 will bring another recovery but upside should be limited by 1.0674 resistance and bring another decline. However, considering bullish convergence condition in 4 hours MACD, break of 1.0674 will suggest that 1.0399 is at least a short term bottom and should bring stronger rebound to 55 days EMA (now at 1.0866). |
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Benign Inflation And Subdued Household Spending Likely To Slow RBNZ's Tightening PathAlthough New Zealand's economy has been growing for 4 quarters up to 1Q10 and another positive reading will likely be seen in 2Q10, we think the pace of expansion has moderated. Meanwhile, recent data such as retail sales, housing activities and consumer price index have indicated domestic spending has been rising only gradually. Externally, economic activities in the US and China have shown signs of slowdown while sovereign crisis in the Eurozone is yet to be resolved. We expect the RBNZ to be cautious in tightening its monetary policies. |
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Trade Idea: USD/CHF – Sell at 1.0500As the greenback has rebounded again after holding above yesterday's low at 1.0394, suggesting further consolidation above this level would take place and retracement to 1.0495/00 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.0561 to 1.0394) cannot be ruled out, however, renewed selling interest should emerge there and bring another decline later. Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Buy at 1.2800Although yesterday's rally suggests the correction from 1.3029 has possibly ended at 1.2732 earlier, as euro has retreated after faltering below yesterday's high at 1.2933, consolidation with mild downside bias is seen for retracement to the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.2836), however, reckon the Ichimoku cloud bottom (now at 1.2791) would attract renewed buying interest and bring another rally later. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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