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Mid-Day Report: Sterling Soar on GDP, Euro Cautious ahead of Stress Test ResultsSterling soars today as boosted by tremendously well Q2 GDP reading. GDP rose 1.1% qoq, 1.6% yoy comparing to expectation of 0.6% qoq, 1.1% yoy. This marked the third consecutive quarter of recover as the economy was supported by higher output by business services, finance and construction. The data also proved that UK is pulling out of recession quicker than most expected. Pound is up over 1% against Yen, Swissy, and Canadian dollar. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
GBP/USD Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.5172; (P) 1.5234; (R1) 1.5318; More. Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains on the upside and whole rise from 1.4230 is resuming for 1.5470 and above. Note that decisive break of 1.5521 resistance will confirm that whole fall from 1.7043 has completed at 1.4230 already and target 61.8% retracement of 1.7043 to 1.4230 at 1.5968 next. However, failure below 1.5521, followed by break of 1.5123 support, will revive the case that fall from 1.7043 is still in progress and will flip intraday bias back to the downside for another low below 1.4230. |
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| Special Reports |
Worries on Fed QE Over-extendedRecent weakness in USD has been driven by disappointing US economic data and speculations that the Fed will implement further easing measures to boost recovery. Moreover, demand for the dollar as a safe-haven has also diminished as concerns over European sovereign crisis receded. While we share the opinion US' economy has moderated and 2Q10 GDP growth may miss market expectations, the country remains in the path of recovery and the possibility of adopting quantitative easing, i.e. printing money, is unlikely for now. At the same time, a slowdown in US economy should hurt the recovery in the Eurozone and many other countries. In fact, the dollar should benefit in case of global economic slowdown with the appeal of safe-haven. Benign Inflation And Subdued Household Spending Likely To Slow RBNZ's Tightening PathAlthough New Zealand's economy has been growing for 4 quarters up to 1Q10 and another positive reading will likely be seen in 2Q10, we think the pace of expansion has moderated. Meanwhile, recent data such as retail sales, housing activities and consumer price index have indicated domestic spending has been rising only gradually. Externally, economic activities in the US and China have shown signs of slowdown while sovereign crisis in the Eurozone is yet to be resolved. We expect the RBNZ to be cautious in tightening its monetary policies. |
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Trade Idea: AUD/USD – Buy at 0.8900As aussie has maintained a firm undertone partly due to risk appetite, suggesting recent rise from 0.8066 low is still in progress as the B wave and gain to 0.9000 and 0.9050 would be seen, however, reckon 0.9105/10 would limit upside due to overbought condition and bring retreat later. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Candlesticks and Ichimoku Intraday Trade Ideas | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD – Buy at 1.2810Despite intra-day brief rise to 1.2966, lack of follow through buying and the subsequent retreat from there suggests consolidation below this level would take place and retracement to intra-day support at 1.2860 would be seen, below would extend weakness towards 1.2821 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.2732 to 1.2966), however, renewed buying interest should emerge around the Ichimoku cloud bottom (now at 1.2807) and bring another rise later. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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