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Mid-Day Report: Euro Extends Rally as NFP Risk ClearedEuro extends rally against dollar in early US session as non-farm payroll risk is cleared. Job report in US showed -125k contraction in June, worse than but not far from expectation of -110k. Unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped from 9.7% to 9.5% comparing to expectation of 0.8%. The data had little impact on markets and funds resumed to flow back from gold and high yielders back to euro, sending the common currency higher. Other data released today saw Eurozone unemployment rate unchanged at 10.0% versus expectation of 10.1%. Eurozone PPI rose 0.3% mom, 3.1% yoy in May. UK PMI construction dropped slightly from 58.5 to 58.4 in June. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
EUR/USD Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.2299; (P) 1.2419 (R1) 1.2644; More. EUR/USD's rally extends further to as high as 1.2610 in early US session and breaks mentioned 38.2% retracement of 1.3691 to 1.1875 at 1.2569. Intraday bias remains on the upside as long as 1.2478 minor support holds and further rise should be seen. Nevertheless, we'd expect strong resistance between 1.2671 resistance and medium term falling trend line at 1.2783 and bring reversal. Below 1.2478 will flip intraday bias back to the downside for 1.2149 support. |
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| Special Report |
Yen To Reverse Rally Later In The Year As Economy Struggles. BOJ Maintains Low Rate PolicyBOJ's quarterly Tanken survey of business June beat market expectations with the headline present condition DI for large manufacturers and non-manufacturers was +1 and -5, readings in March for both indices were -14. The readings also exceeded the consensus of -3 and -7 respectively. Forecasts for coming months were also robust. While the encouraging survey might have helped push Japanese yen higher, the major driver was clearly the sharp deterioration in risk appetite as worries over double dip reignited. |
| Economic Indicators Update |
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Trade Idea: AUD/USD – Hold short entered at 0.8500Despite intra-day rise to 0.8510, as aussie has retreated from there, retaining our bearish and as long as this level holds, downside bias remains for another fall towards support at 0.8315, break there would add credence to our view that c leg as well as wave B has ended at 0.8860 earlier and bearishness remains for further weakness to 0.8300 and then 0.8240/50, however, reckon 0.8150 would hold from here. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Candlesticks and Ichimoku Intraday Trade Ideas | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF – Sell at 1.0790Although intra-day recovery after holding above yesterday's low at 1.0579 suggests further consolidation would be seen and retracement to the Ichimoku cloud bottom (now at 1.0740) and then resistance at 1.0752 cannot be ruled out, but reckon the Ichimoku cloud top (now at 1.0790) would attract renewed buying interest and bring another decline later. Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD – Buy at 1.5100As the British pound has maintained a firm undertone after breaking resistance at 1.5199, suggesting further gain to 1.5241 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.6879 to 1.4228) and then towards 1.5290 would be seen, however, loss of near term upward momentum should prevent sharp move beyond 1.5313 (50% projection of 1.4873 to 1.5199 measuring from 1.5150) and reckon 1.5351 (61.8% projection) would hold from here.. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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