Monday, July 19, 2010

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 7-19-10

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Euro Unbothered by Negative News, Markets Mixed

Financial markets are generally mixed as earlier weakness in Asian equities was not carried through to European session. Dollar and yen turn soft but remain in tight range in general. Nevertheless, noticeable strength is seen in Euro, in crosses where we have EUR/GBP and EUR/CHF extending recent rebound. Meanwhile. commodity currencies are still generally weak, along with sterling.

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Featured Technical Report

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5230; (P) 1.5346; (R1) 1.5414; More.

GBP/USD's pull back from 1.5470 extends further today and intraday bias is mildly on the downside for trend line support (now at 1.5077). Nevertheless, note that rise from 1.4230 remains in favor to continue as long as 1.4947 support holds. Above 1.5351 minor resistance will flip intraday bias back to the upside for 1.5470 and above. Decisive break of 1.5521 resistance will confirm that whole fall from 1.7043 has completed at 1.4230 already and target 61.8% retracement of 1.7043 to 1.4230 at 1.5968 next. However, failure below 1.5521, followed by break of 1.4947 will revive the case that fall from 1.7043 is still in progress and will flip intraday bias back to the downside for another low below 1.4230.

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Concerns Over European Sovereign Crisis Ebbed, Stress Tests In Focus

While broad market sentiment remains volatile as driven by economic data released in the US and China, as well as mixed corporate earnings results, concerns about sovereign crisis in the Eurozone has eased in recently weeks as banks requested lower amount of money from ECB's LTRO after the 12-month LTRO expired on June 30.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:01 GBP Rightmove House Prices M/M Jul -0.60% -- 0.30%
23:01 GBP Rightmove House Prices Y/Y Jul 3.70% -- 5.00%
08:00 EUR Eurozone Current Account (EUR) May -16.7B -3.0B -5.1B
12:30 CAD International Securities Transactions (CAD) May 23.16B 8.05B 12.36B
14:00 USD NAHB Housing Market Index Jul 16 17
Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: USD/CAD – Buy at 1.0450

Last week's strong rebound after holding above support at 1.0276 suggest the correction from 1.0678 has possibly ended there last week and consolidation with upside bias remains for gain towards said resistance but a sustained breach above key resistance at 1.0678/80 is needed to add credence to our bullish count and signal wave (iii) has commenced for subsequent headway to 1.0750.

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Trade Idea: EUR/GBP – Buy at 0.8410

As the single currency has rallied again after finding decent demand above last week's low at 0.8317, suggesting the rise from 0.8067 low remains in progress and correction of recent decline to 0.8550 is likely, however, near term overbought condition would limit upside and reckon 0.8603 (wave 1 bottom) would hold from here.

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Candlesticks and Ichimoku Intraday Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF – Exit long entered at 1.0450 and buy at 1.0470

Failure to penetrate indicated resistance at 1.0543-48 suggests further consolidation would be seen and pullback to the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.0477) cannot be ruled out, however, reckon 1.0441-46 (current level of the Ichimoku cloud bottom and intra-day support) would attract renewed buying interest and bring another rebound later.

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Trade Idea Update: USD/JPY – Sell at 87.70

Dollar's intra-day cross-inspired rebound suggest a temporary low has been formed at 86.27 last week and correction to the Ichimoku cloud bottom (now at 87.41) is likely, however, reckon renewed selling interest would emerge around 87.70 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 89.12 to 86.27) and bring retreat later.

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Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights


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