Friday, July 16, 2010

Action Insight Daily Report 7-16-10

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Daily Report: Markets Split, Yen and European Majors Strong

The markets are split for the moment. On the one hand, Japanese yen has been impressively strong as boosted by mild risk aversion. Nikkei dropped -2.86% to close at 9408 today as Google reported lower than expected earnings. Yen is also helped by the sharp fall in treasury yield where yield on 10 years note dived back 2.978% overnight. Yen's strength is limiting rally in commodity currencies against dollar, which were also pressured by disappointing CPI data from New Zealand. On the other hand, European majors remain firm as this week's bond auctions showed that Eurozone is overcoming its debt crisis. Rally in EUR/USD and GBP/USD is still set to extend further.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 86.91; (P) 87.71; (R1) 88.18; More.

USD/JPY drops further today and is now pressing 86.96 support. Break will confirm that recent fall from 94.97 has resumed and should target 84.81 low next. On the upside, above 80.02 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But we'd expect recovery to be limited by 89.14 resistance and bring another fall.

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Special Report

CAD to Remain Strong as Driven by Robust Domestic Growth

Our optimism on Canadian dollar's long-term outlook hinges on the country's strong domestic growth and healthy fiscal conditions. Despite the fact that risk-sensitive assets (including CAD) have been cold-shouldered over the past 2 months as sovereign woes in the Eurozone -and worries over a 'double-dip' recession triggered demand for safe-haven, the actual impact on Canada's economy should be small. Instead, robust domestic demand, consistent increase in payrolls and sound fiscal conditions (having the lowest deficits as a % of GDP among the G7) should support the country's growth and warrant further tightening by the BOC for the rest of the year.

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The Fed Downgraded Growth Forecasts, But The Overall Tone Not Too Pessimistic

The June FOMC minutes unveiled that policymakers downgraded economic forecasts for 2010 slightly as a number of members saw the risks to the outlook as having shifted to the downside. The tone of the minutes was dovish but it was largely expected as the Fed released the meeting statement on June 23. The Fed did not discuss much about exiting stimulus but the changes to the outlook were 'viewed as relatively modest and as not warranting policy accommodation beyond that already in place'.

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SNB to Resume Intervention Soon

Swiss franc surged against the euro and the dollar by -7.22% and -6.37% respectively in June with the rallies accelerated after SNB's meeting on June 17. The central bank raised its inflation forecasts and stated that the deflationary risk in Switzerland has largely disappeared. At the same time, the SNB did not reiterate the stance to 'act decisively to prevent an excessive appreciation of the Swiss franc against the euro' although the franc has strengthened +8% against the euro over the past 6 months. This indicated the SNB's increased tolerance to the decline of EURCHF.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
22:45 NZD CPI Q/Q Q2 0.30% 0.50% 0.40%
22:45 NZD CPI Y/Y Q2 1.80% -- 2.00%
23:50 JPY Tertiary Industry Index M/M May -0.90% -0.70% 2.10% 2.40%
9:00 EUR Eurozone Trade Balance (EUR) May 0.8B 1.4B 1.6B
12:30 CAD Leading Indicators M/M Jun -- 0.90%
12:30 USD CPI M/M Jun 0.00% -0.20%
12:30 USD CPI Y/Y Jun 1.20% 2.00%
12:30 USD CPI Core M/M Jun 0.10% 0.10%
12:30 USD CPI Core Y/Y Jun 0.90% 0.90%
13:00 USD Net Long-Term TIC Flows May 35.7B $83.0B
13:55 USD U. of Michigan Confidence Jul P 74 76
Suggested Readings

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