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Mid-Day Report: EUR/USD Breaks 1.3 on China, USD/JPY Makes New 2010 LowWhile the worst of Eurozone debt crisis seems to have past, Euro is further boosted by China Premier Wen Jaibao's comment that Europe is a major market for China to invest its foreign-exchange reserves. In additional. China and Germany Signed 10 agreements that worth at least $4.4b in Beijing to build a "comprehensive strategy partnership". Euro is broadly strong, along with yen, and strengthens against dollar, sterling as well as commodity currencies. EUR/USD breaches 1.3 psychological level briefly and is set to extend towards 1.31 cluster level later in the month. EUR/GBP also breaks last week's high of 0.8418 level to resume the rally from 0.8067 towards 0.86 medium term resistance level. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
USD/JPY Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 86.91; (P) 87.71; (R1) 88.18; More. USD/JPY's break of 86.96 confirms that whole decline from 94.97 has resumed. Intraday bias remains on the downside and we'd expect further decline to 84.81 low next. On the upside, above 87.36 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But we'd expect recovery to be limited below 89.14 resistance and bring another fall. |
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| Special Report |
CAD to Remain Strong as Driven by Robust Domestic GrowthOur optimism on Canadian dollar's long-term outlook hinges on the country's strong domestic growth and healthy fiscal conditions. Despite the fact that risk-sensitive assets (including CAD) have been cold-shouldered over the past 2 months as sovereign woes in the Eurozone -and worries over a 'double-dip' recession triggered demand for safe-haven, the actual impact on Canada's economy should be small. Instead, robust domestic demand, consistent increase in payrolls and sound fiscal conditions (having the lowest deficits as a % of GDP among the G7) should support the country's growth and warrant further tightening by the BOC for the rest of the year. The Fed Downgraded Growth Forecasts, But The Overall Tone Not Too PessimisticThe June FOMC minutes unveiled that policymakers downgraded economic forecasts for 2010 slightly as a number of members saw the risks to the outlook as having shifted to the downside. The tone of the minutes was dovish but it was largely expected as the Fed released the meeting statement on June 23. The Fed did not discuss much about exiting stimulus but the changes to the outlook were 'viewed as relatively modest and as not warranting policy accommodation beyond that already in place'. SNB to Resume Intervention SoonSwiss franc surged against the euro and the dollar by -7.22% and -6.37% respectively in June with the rallies accelerated after SNB's meeting on June 17. The central bank raised its inflation forecasts and stated that the deflationary risk in Switzerland has largely disappeared. At the same time, the SNB did not reiterate the stance to 'act decisively to prevent an excessive appreciation of the Swiss franc against the euro' although the franc has strengthened +8% against the euro over the past 6 months. This indicated the SNB's increased tolerance to the decline of EURCHF. |
| Economic Indicators Update |
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