Tuesday, July 27, 2010

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 7-27-10

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Risk Appetite Gains Momentum on Strong Earnings

Risk appetite trades regain momentum today as support from strong corporate earnings. European stocks are broadly higher as boosted by strong earnings from UBS AG and Deutsche Bank AG while US stock also set to open higher as DuPont Co. top second-quarter profit and revenue forecasts. Sterling is additionally supported by strong CBI distributive trade survey which indicates that sales on high street increased in July at the fastest pace since April 2007. GBP/USD takes out 1.5521 resistance to confirm medium term reversal. Meanwhile, Australian dollar and Canadian dollar are both strong against dollar too. Japanese yen is also sharply lower against major currencies. EUR/JPY has taken out 113.4 resistance while GBP/JPY also breaks 136 level. The developments suggest that more upside would be seen in yen crosses in general in near term. Nevertheless, beware of consumer confidence data in US for volatility.

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Featured Technical Report

GBP/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 134.10; (P) 134.84; (R1) 135.29; More

GBP/JPY rises sharply to as high as 136.43 so far in early US session. The break of 136.39 resistance confirms that whole rise from 126.73 has resumed and should now target 61.8% retracement of 145.94 to 126.73 at 138.60 and above. On the downside, touching of 134.37 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But another rise would remain in favor as long as 130.02 support holds.

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Special Reports

US Housing Market Continues To Struggle

US new home sales surprised to the upside in June, following huge downward revisions in May and April sales. However, sales remained the second lowest on record (since 1963). While there were some positive areas showed in yesterday's report, housing data released in recent weeks have indicated weak underlying demand in the US after expiration of the tax credit and disappointing job numbers.

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Speculators Remained Net Sellers Of USD For A Second Week

Speculators sold -$1.18B last week, bringing the net short positions of USD to –$7.71B in the week ended Jul 20. This is the second week that USD fell in the net short territory and we believe negative economic data triggering worries over a slowdown and ease in sovereign crisis in the Eurozone are the major reasons.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:50 JPY Corporate Service Price Y/Y Jun -1.00% -0.90% -0.80%
00:00 AUD Conference Board Leading Index May 0.30% -- 0.10%
06:00 EUR German GfK Consumer Sentiment Aug 3.9 3.6 3.5 3.6
06:00 CHF UBS Consumption Indicator Jun 1.81 -- 1.737 1.712
08:00 EUR Eurozone M3 Y/Y Jun 0.20% -0.10% -0.20%
10:00 GBP CBI Distributive Trades Survey Jul 33 3 -5
13:00 USD S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 Y/Y May 4.60% 3.75% 3.81%
14:00 USD Consumer Confidence Jul 51.8 52.9
Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: EUR/JPY – Buy at 112.80

Failure to extend yesterday's rebound from 86.82 and the subsequent retreat suggest caution on our long position entered at 86.90 and 86.55/60 needs to hold to retain bullish prospect for another bounce later today.

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Candlesticks and Ichimoku Intraday Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: USD/JPY – Hold long entered at 86.90

Although the greenback has eased after intra-day rise to 87.48 partly due to renewed selloff in dollar especially versus euro and pound, reckon downside would be limited to the Kijun-Sen (now at 87.15) and the Ichimoku cloud bottom (now at 87.03) should hold, bring another rally towards 87.78 resistance.

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Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD – Buy at 1.2965

Although the single currency retreated from 1.3022 to 1.2963, as euro found renewed buying interest just above the Kijun-Sen and broke above resistance at 1.3029, suggesting recent upmove remains in progress and further gain to 1.3090/00 would be seen, however, near term overbought condition should limit upside to 1.3140/50 and reckon 1.3173 (1.618 times projection of 1.2732 to 1.2966 measuring from 1.2794) would hold from here and risk from there has increased for a correction later.

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Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights


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