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Mid-Day Report: Euro Steady as Bond Auctions Offset Poor ZEWIn spite of initial weakness on Greece downgrade, European stocks staged strong recovery as bond auctions showed solid demand. Spain's Treasury raised EUR 5.2b at its 12 and 18-month T-bill auction while Belgium raised EUR 2.5 billion euros in a heavily oversubscribed auction. Ireland sold 1.5 billion euros in bonds. The results also offset disappointingly poor German ZEW economic sentiment reading and helped Euro recovered from intraday low. Dollar, on the other hand, is broadly soft in early US session after data showed import price index dropped -0.6% mom in June, Empire State manufacturing index rose less than expected to 19.6 in June. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
EUR/USD Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.2123; (P) 1.2211 (R1) 1.2307; More. EUR/USD recovers stronger after initial dip today. With 1.2045 minor support intact and 4 hours MACD staying above signal line, recovery from 1.1875 might still extend further. But after all, we're expecting strong resistance at 1.2330 to limit upside and bring down trend resumption. Below 1.2045 minor support will flip intraday bias back to the downside. Further break of 1.1875 will confirm fall resumption to 100% projection of 1.5143 to 1.3266 from 1.3691 at 1.1814 and then 1.1639 key support. However, strong break of 1.2330 will in turn suggest that a short term bottom is at least formed at 1.1875 and stronger rebound would then be seen to test 1.2671 resistance next. |
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| Special Report |
SNB to Keep Rates Unchanged. Focus on the Stance to Intervene CHFThe SNB will likely keep the 3-month LIBOR target at 0.25% at the meeting on Thursday. However, the market will focus on the central bank's stance on FX intervention as the euro has tumbled due to sovereign crisis in the Eurozone. The SNB may also revise up its forecasts for growth and inflation given robustness in economic data in recent months. Indeed, whether policymakers will actively implement intervention depends on the inflationary outlook. |
| Economic Indicators Update |
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Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD – Buy at 1.2185As the single currency found renewed buying interest above the Ichimoku cloud top and staged a strong rebound from 1.2168, suggesting the rise from 1.1876 temporary low is still in progress and above resistance at 1.2298 would extend gain to 1.2327 but loss of upward momentum would prevent sharp move beyond next resistance at 1.2355 and reckon 1.2395/00 would hold. Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD – Buy at 1.4650Although cable has rebounded after intra-day retreat to 1.4682, above 1.4810 is needed to signal recent rise has resumed and extend gain towards 1.4876 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.5524 to 1.4228), however, loss of upward momentum would prevent sharp move beyond there and risk has increased for a retreat later. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Trade Idea: EUR/JPY – Hold long entered at 111.40Despite intra-day fall to 110.87, as the single currency has rebounded, retaining our bullishness for another rise to yesterday's high at 112.87, break there would add credence to our view that wave v has ended at 108.06 earlier and then stronger retracement of recent decline to 113.40/50 and later towards 114.16 would be seen. Trade Idea: AUD/USD – Sell at 0.8600Despite yesterday's rise to 0.8668, as the Australian dollar has retreated from there, suggesting the (c) leg as well as wave b has possibly ended there and consolidation with downside bias is seen for weakness to 0.8425/35, however, below 0.9290/00 (approx. 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 0.8066 to 0.8668) would add credence to this view and bring further fall to 0.8200/10 later. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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