Thursday, June 3, 2010

Action Insight Daily Report 6-2-10

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Daily Report: Yen Weakens Further as Kan Gets Support to be Next PM

Japanese yen continues to be the weakest major currency as stocks rebound and as Finance Minister Naoto Kan gets closer to succeed Yukio Hatoyama as prime minister. Kan won support from Foreign Minister Katsua Okada who said he'd like Kan to "fulfill Hatoyama's wish to regain the party's spirit lost by money politics." Transport Minister Seiji Maehara also said he will back Kan. Kan is known to support a weak yen policy and expects more from BoJ to take deflation and support growth. Nikkei jumped sharply higher by 3.24% to 9914 today. Japanese yen is broadly lower against other major currencies with USD/JPY up to 92.40. The ruling DPJ will vote for a new head tomorrow. Data from Japan saw capital spending dropped more than expected by -11.5% in Q1.

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Featured Technical Report

EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.53; (P) 112.29; (R1) 113.60; More.

EUR/JPY rebounds further to as high as 113.86 today and the break of 113.67 suggests that more rise would be seen. Nevertheless, there is no change in the view that price actions from 108.82 are merely consolidations to larger fall. Upside is expected to be limited by 38.2% retracement of 127.88 to 108.82 at 116.10 and break fall resumption. On the downside, decisive break of 108.82 low will confirm down trend resumption and should target 61.8% projection of 169.96 to 112.10 from 139.21 at 103.45 next.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:50 JPY Capital Spending Q1 -11.50% -9.60% -17.30%
1:30 AUD Trade Balance (AUD) Apr 134M -800M -2082M
6:00 GBP Nationwide House Prices s.a. M/M May 0.50% 0.30% 1.00% 1.10%
6:00 GBP Nationwide House Prices n.s.a. Y/Y May 9.80% 9.60% 10.50%
7:55 EUR German PMI Services May F 53.7 53.7
8:00 EUR Eurozone PMI Services May F 56 56
8:30 GBP PMI Services May 55.6 55.3
9:00 EUR Eurozone Retail Sales M/M Apr 0.10% 0.00%
9:00 EUR Eurozone Retail Sales Y/Y Apr -0.10% -0.10%
12:15 USD ADP Employment Change May 55K 32K
12:30 USD Non-Farm Productivity Q1 F 3.60% 3.60%
12:30 USD Unit Labor Costs Q1 F -1.70% -1.60%
12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 450K 460K
14:00 USD ISM Non-Manufacutring Composite May 55.8 55.4
14:00 USD Factory Orders Apr 1.50% 1.30%
15:00 USD Crude Oil Inventories -0.4M 2.4M
15:15 USD Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke Speaks in Detroit Michigan -- --
16:15 USD Fed's Eric Rosengren Speaks in Springfield Massachusetts -- --
17:15 USD Fed's Thomas Hoenig Speaks in Bartlesville Oklahoma -- --
Candlesticks and Ichimoku Intraday Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Buy at 1.2220

Despite yesterday's fall to 1.2175, as the single currency found good support there and staged a strong rebound, retaining our view that further consolidation above support at 1.2110 temporary low would be seen and another leg of corrective upmove is underway towards resistance at 1.2355, however, break there is needed to extend rise towards 1.2395/00 but price should falter well below resistance at 1.2454.

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Trade Idea: USD/JPY – Buy at 91.95

Current firmness partly due to renewed cross-selling in yen suggests recent upmove from 88.95 is still in progress and gain to resistance at 92.97 would be seen, however, loss of near term upward momentum would limit upside and price should falter below resistance at 93.65.

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