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Mid-Day Report: Confidence Supported by China Data, Dollar and Yen WeakenInvestors confidence continue to be supported by rumor or strong data from China. Reuters, quoting 3 unidentified persons, said that China's exports expanded +50% y/y in May and new loans reached +RMB 630B, exceeding consensus forecasts of RMB 600B. China stocks rose the most in two weeks with Shanghai composite index climbed 2.8% and lead European Stocks and commodities higher. Dollar index extends yesterday's retreat and drops below 88 level. |
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EUR/USD Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.1913; (P) 1.1960 (R1) 1.2020; More. EUR/USD's consolidation from 1.1875 is still in progress and more recovery might be seen to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 1.2126). Nevertheless, upside should be limited by 1.2330 resistance and bring fall resumption. Below 1.1875 will target 100% projection of 1.5143 to 1.3266 from 1.3691 at 1.1814 and then 1.1639 key support. |
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RBNZ To Begin Its Normalizing Process In JuneCurrently, interest-rate swaps indicate an 80% chance the RBNZ will raise the cash rate by +25 bps points to 2.75% in June. The market had priced in chances of 52% on May 21 and 64% after April's meeting. Despite uncertainty in Eurozone's sovereign crisis, the hike is warranted as recent data has shown robust domestic economic growth. ECB to Maintain Rate at 1%. Focus on Clarifications of Bond Purchase and LTROsWhile the ECB will continue to leave the main refinancing rate unchanged at 1%, the focus of Thursday's meeting will be on the press conference. As this will be the first meeting after risks of sovereign crisis in the Eurozone escalated, announcement of EU/IMF's Stabilization Facility and ECB's bond purchase program, we expect to hear many questions regarding the timing and size of the bond purchase program and the central bank's 'new' gradual exit plan. ECB staff will also release updates on GDP growth and inflation. |
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Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD – Hold short entered at 1.4530Current firmness partly due to cross-buying against Japanese yen suggests caution on our bearishness and resistance at 1.4563 must hold for prospect of another retreat later. Below the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.4450) would signal top has been formed but only break of 1.4394 intra-day support would signal correction is over, bring retest of yesterday's low at 1.4346. Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD – Sell at 1.2075Current cross-inspired rebound suggest near term upside risk remains for retracement of recent decline to 1.2075/80, however, reckon 1.2102 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.2327 to 1.1876) would hold from here and bring retreat later. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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