Thursday, June 3, 2010

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 6-3-10

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: ADP Showed 55k Expansion in May, Dollar Mildly Higher

Dollar is mildly higher in early US session after ADP report showed 55k expansion in the private job market in May, basically inline with expectation. Prior month's figure was revised up from 32k to 65k. While the data was solid, it doesn't support the view of an exceptionally strong Non-farm payroll figure for tomorrow. Markets are expecting around 500k expansion to be shown by NFP, including around 400k workers hired temporarily to conduct the 2010 Census. Other data released from US saw initial jobless claim remains elevated at 453k. Non-farm productivity was revised lower to 2.8% in Q1 with unit labor cost dropped -1.3%.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 91.22; (P) 91.79; (R1) 92.68; More.

USD/JPY's rise is still in progress and edges higher to 92.79 in early US session. Intraday bias remains on the upside and further rally might be seen. But after all, as price actions from 88.25 are viewed as consolidative in nature, we'd expect upside to be limited below 93.62 resistance and bring another fall. On the downside, below 92.03 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. Further break of 90.53 support will indicate that rebound from 88.97 is completed and will bring retest of 88.13/97 support zone.

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:50 JPY Capital Spending Q1 -11.50% -9.60% -17.30%
01:30 AUD Trade Balance (AUD) Apr 134M -800M -2082M
06:00 GBP Nationwide House Prices s.a. M/M May 0.50% 0.30% 1.00% 1.10%
06:00 GBP Nationwide House Prices n.s.a. Y/Y May 9.80% 9.60% 10.50%
07:55 EUR German PMI Services May F 54.8 53.7 53.7
08:00 EUR Eurozone PMI Services May F 56.2 56 56
08:30 GBP PMI Services May 55.4 55.6 55.3
09:00 EUR Eurozone Retail Sales M/M Apr -1.20% 0.10% 0.00% 0.50%
09:00 EUR Eurozone Retail Sales Y/Y Apr -1.50% -0.10% -0.10% 1.30%
12:15 USD ADP Employment Change May 55K 55K 32K
12:30 USD Non-Farm Productivity Q1 F 2.80% 3.60% 3.60%
12:30 USD Unit Labor Costs Q1 F -1.30% -1.70% -1.60%
12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 453K 450K 460K
14:00 USD ISM Non-Manufacutring Composite May 55.8 55.4
14:00 USD Factory Orders Apr 1.50% 1.30%
15:00 USD Crude Oil Inventories -0.4M 2.4M
15:15 USD Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke Speaks in Detroit Michigan -- --
16:15 USD Fed's Eric Rosengren Speaks in Springfield Massachusetts -- --
17:15 USD Fed's Thomas Hoenig Speaks in Bartlesville Oklahoma -- --
Candlesticks and Ichimoku Intraday Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD – Buy at 1.2190

Euro's intra-day retreat from 1.2327 reinforces our view that further consolidation would be seen and the broke below the Kijun-Sen suggests weakness to 1.2190 is likely, however, support at 1.2175 (yesterday's low) should limit downside and bring another rebound later. Above resistance at 1.2327 would suggest the corrective rise from 1.2110 temporary low has resumed and then test of next resistance at 1.2355 would follow but break there is needed to confirm and extend to 1.2395/00, however, price should falter well below resistance at 1.2454.

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Trade Idea Update: USD/JPY – Buy at 92.05

As dollar has continued to move higher, suggesting recent upmove from 88.95 is still in progress and further gain to indicated resistance at 92.97 would be seen, above would extend marginally to 93.20/25, however, loss of near term upward momentum would prevent sharp rise beyond chart resistance at 93.65 and risk from there has increased for a correction later.

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Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: EUR/JPY – Buy at 112.50

Current breach of indicated resistance at 113.67 reinforces our view that wave v has formed a low at 108.83 earlier and consolidation with upside bias remains for retracement to 114.40, above would extend to 115.00 but reckon 115.56 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 122.29 to 108.83) would hold from here.

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Trade Idea: AUD/USD – Buy at 0.8350

As the Australian dollar finally rebounded after finding support at 0.8276 yesterday, adding credence to our view that temporary low has been formed at 0.8066 (wave v of a) and test of 0.8552 would be seen, however, break there is needed to bring stronger retracement in 2nd wave b for gain to 0.8600.

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