Friday, June 18, 2010

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 6-18-10

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Sterling Pares Gains Despite Solid Data, Gold Makes New Record High

Sterling fails to maintain earlier gains in spite of better than expected data released from UK today. Mortgage approvals rose slightly to 51k in May while public sector net borrowings rose less than expected to GBP 16b in may. Nevertheless, markets hesitated to push sterling further through fibonacci resistance against dollar as stocks tread water. European stocks fluctuate in tight range without any direction which dollar manages to pare some of earlier losses. Gold, on the other hand, makes new record high above 1260 today. Other data released today saw German PPI rose 0.3% mom, 0.9% yoy in May. Canada international securities transactions rose strongly to CAD 12.38b in April. Leading indicator rose 0.9% mom in May.

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Featured Technical Report

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4698; (P) 1.4768; (R1) 1.4892; More

Intraday bias in GBP/USD is turned neutral as it retreats sharply from intraday high of 1.4885. Note that recovery from 1.4230 is expected to be limited by 100% projection of 1.4230 to 1.4769 from 1.4346 at 1.4885. Break of 1.4644 minor support will suggest that such recovery is completed and flip intraday bias back to the downside. Further break of 1.4346 will confirm this case and target a retest of 1.4230 low next. However, decisive break of 1.4885 will target 1.5053 resistance next.

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
-- JPY Cabinet Office Monthly Economic Report -- --
23:50 JPY BoJ Meeting Minutes -- --
06:00 EUR German PPI M/M May 0.30% 0.10% 0.80%
06:00 EUR German PPI Y/Y May 0.90% 0.80% 0.60%
08:30 GBP Major Banks Mortgage Approvals May 51K 49K 47K 50K
08:30 GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing (GBP) May 16.0B 18.0B 10.0B
08:30 GBP M4 Money Supply M/M May P 0.00% 0.20% 0.00%
08:30 GBP M4 Money Supply Y/Y May P 2.80% 3.10% 3.30% 3.20%
09:30 CHF KOF Institute Economic Forecast -- --
12:30 CAD International Securities Transactions (CAD) Apr 12.38B 3.500B -0.616B
12:30 CAD Leading Indicators M/M May 0.90% 0.80% 0.90%
Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: AUD/USD – Sell at 0.8730

Although aussie has continued to edge higher and one more rise to 0.8728 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 0.9389 to 0.8066) is likely, as this move is still viewed as the (c) leg of wave b, reckon upside would be limited and 0.8800 should hold and bring retreat later.

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Candlesticks and Ichimoku Intraday Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD – Buy at 1.4700

As the British pound has continued to move lower after retreating from 1.4887, retaining our view that a minor top has been formed there and consolidation with mild downside bias remains for retracement to the Ichimoku cloud are (now at 1.4746-50), however, reckon renewed buying interest would emerge around 1.4700 and bring another upmove later.

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Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD – Buy at 1.2270

As euro has retreated after intra-day marginal rise to 1.2417, suggesting consolidation below there would take place and pullback to the Ichimoku cloud area (now at 1.2282-1.2319) is likely, however, renewed buying interest should emerge well above support at 1.2242 and bring another rally.

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Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights


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