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Daily Report: Sentiments Lifted by China Data, Aussie Soars on GDPDollar and yen are mildly softer today as sentiments are lifted mildly by solid manufacturing data from China. PMI manufacturing rose slightly more than expected to 51.7 in August while HSBC manufacturing PMI also rose back above 50 to 51.9. Asian equities are generally higher with Nikkei up more than 1%. Australian dollar and the Australian all ordinaries index are both particularly strong as boosted by strong GDP data. Q2 GDP rose 1.2% qoq, 3.3% yoy, easily beat expectation of 0.9% qoq, 2.8% yoy. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
USD/CAD Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.0595; (P) 1.0633; (R1) 1.0693; More. USD/CAD jumps to as high as 1.0671 but retreats mildly ahead of 1.0675 resistance. Intraday bias remains cautiously on the upside for the moment. Decisive break of 1.0675 resistance will further affirm our bullish view that medium term rebound is resuming and should target another high above 1.0851. On the downside, though, below 1.0573 minor support will suggests that more sideway trading would be seen first, with risk of another test of 1.0470 before recent rise resumes. Though, downside is still expected to be contained well above 1.0246 support in such case. |
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| Special Reports |
No FOMC Member Sees Deflation Risks, Reinvestment For MBS Proceeds Mainly For Keeping Balance Sheet StableWhile Chairman Ben Bernanke said last week at the Jackson Hole conference that the Fed outlined several stimulus measures boost recovery and fight deflation, minutes for the August meeting unveiled that it will be far more difficult in execution that expected as Committee members do not appeared to be ready to enter into QE2. More surprisingly, the minutes stated that 'no member saw an appreciable risk of deflation'. This is in contrast with what we perceived over the past few weeks. ECB To Extend Full Allotment Of Refinancing Operations Towards Year-EndAt Thursday's ECB, president Trichet is expected to leave the main-refinancing rate unchanged at 1% and reiterate the view that current interest rates are 'appropriate' while 'the risks to the economic outlook are broadly balanced in an environment of uncertainty'. Market's focus will be on the press conference where Trichet will announce the new set of staff macroeconomic projections and extend emergency support for the Eurozone until early 2011. |
| Economic Indicators Update |
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| Candlesticks and Ichimoku Intraday Trade Ideas | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Trade Idea: USD/CHF – Sell at 1.0220As the greenback has recovered after yesterday's selloff to 1.0136, suggesting minor consolidation would be seen and above the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.0193) would bring retracement to 1.0220 (previous support turned resistance) and the Ichimoku cloud area (now at 1.0256-64) should hold, bring another decline later. Trade Idea: USD/JPY – Buy at 83.65Although the greenback rebounded after yesterday's brief fall to 83.38, above the Ichimoku cloud bottom (now at 84.74) is needed to signal the fall from 85.91 has formed a temporary low there and bring rebound to upper Kumo at 85.05, then 85.12 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 85.91 to 83.83) and possibly towards 85.45/50 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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