Wednesday, September 29, 2010

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 9-29-10

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Euro and Aussie Extend Rally; Dollar, Sterling Weak

Overall outlook in the forex markets remains unchanged. Dollar is soft and in particular, under much pressure against Euro, Aussie and Swissy. Continuous speculation on more quantitative easing from Fed will limit any recovery attempt of the greenback. Sterling is also facing similar situation as BoE might extend the asset purchase program down the road. Euro, on the other hand, is supported by solid confidence data today and continues to ignore risk of peripheral Eurozone countries downgrade as well as the ECB loan rollover this week. Aussie is the strongest commodity currencies as boosted by solid China economic data and it's own fundamentals.

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Featured Technical Report

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3445; (P) 1.3520 (R1) 1.3659; More.

EUR/USD's rise is still in progress and extends to 1.3642 so far in early US session. Intraday bias remains on the upside and current rally is targeting 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.3330 from 1.2587 at 1.4024, which is close to 1.4 psychological level. On the downside, below 1.3552 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring retreat first. But in such case, we'd expect strong support from 1.3286 to contain downside and bring another rise.

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
21:45 NZD Trade Balance (NZD) Aug -437M -74M -186M -183M
23:50 JPY Tankan Large Manufacturers Index Q3 8 7 1
23:50 JPY Tankan Non-Manufacturing Index Q3 2 -2 -5
00:00 AUD Conference Board Leading Index Jul 0.80% -- 0.10% 0.60%
08:30 GBP Index of Services 3M/3M Jul 0.50% 0.70% 0.70% 0.60%
09:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial Confidence Sep -2 -5 -4 -3
09:00 EUR Eurozone Consumer Confidence Sep -11 -11 -11
09:00 EUR Eurozone Economic Confidence Sep 103.2 101.3 101.8 102.3
09:00 EUR Eurozone Services Confidence Sep 8 7 7
09:30 CHF KOF Leading Indicator Sep 2.21 2.11 2.18 2.22
12:30 CAD Industrial Product Price M/M Aug 0.40% 0.30% 0.10%
12:30 CAD Raw Materials Price Index M/M Aug 2.20% 0.60% 1.80%
14:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories -0.4M 1.0M
Candlesticks and Ichimoku Intraday Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD – Took profit on short and stand aside

Although the intra-day anticipated retreat from 1.5875 to 1.5762 (our short position entered at 1.5860 met downside target at 1.5780 with 80 points profit), as cable has just rebounded in part due to intra-day strength in euro, suggesting further choppy consolidation within recent 1.5718-1.5896 range would take place. Only above said intra-day resistance at 1.5875 would signal upmove has resumed for retest of 1.5896, then towards 1.5920/30.

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Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD – Buy at 1.3560

As the single currency has rebounded again after brief pullback, suggesting bullishness remains for recent upmove to resume and extend gain to 1.3660, however, loss of near term upward momentum should prevent sharp rise beyond there and reckon previous resistance at 1.3692 would hold on first testing.

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