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Daily Report: Euro Sharply Lower on Banking Worries, Bearish Outlook Retained?Euro is under renewed pressure as concerns on banking sector of Europe resurfaced. Firstly, German Banking Association said that the countries ten largest banks might need to raise as much as EUR 105b in capital under the proposed Basel II capital and liquidity rules to be finalized today. Secondly, A WSJ article reported that the European bank stress test"understated some lenders' holdings of potentially risky government debt." EUR/USD bounced off sharply from 1.2921 near term resistance and is back pressing 1.2776 minor support. EUR/JPY breaches 107.45 minor support will now turn bias back to the downside. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
EUR/JPY Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 108.13; (P) 108.54; (R1) 108.80; More EUR/JPY's sharp fall today and break of 107.45 minor support suggests that consolidation from 105.42 might be over. Intraday bias is flipped back to the downside. Further break of 106.17 support will indicate that t recent decline is resuming for medium term projection level at 103.45 next. On the upside, above 109.53 will bring another recovery. But even in that case, upside is still expected to be limited by 111.09 cluster resistance and bring resumption of fall from 114.72. |
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RBA Said Rates Are Appropriate 'For The Time Being', Signal Of A Hike Soon?As expected, the RBA left the cash rate unchanged at 4.5% as global economic outlook remained uncertain. Policymakers judged that about-trend growth and inflation in the near-term rendered the setting of monetary policy 'appropriate for the time being'. The central bank acknowledged that global economy had grown 'faster than trend' in the first half but it would probably 'ease back to about trend pace over the coming year'. Commenting specifically on developments in China, Europe and the US, the RBA stated that growth in China 'is moderating to a more sustainable rate as policies are now less accommodating'. While 'output has improved significantly' in Europe so far this year, 'prospects for next year are probably for slower growth given planned fiscal contraction'. In the US, growth was 'solid in the first half of 2010 but the pace of expansion in the second half of the year is looking weaker'. |
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| Candlesticks and Ichimoku Intraday Trade Ideas | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Trade Idea: GBP/USD – Sell at 1.5450Despite yesterday's fall to 1.5345, lack of follow through selling after breaking previous support at 1.5350 and subsequent recovery suggest further consolidation would be seen, however, renewed selling interest should emerge around 1.5445/50 (current level of the Ichimoku cloud top), bring another decline later. A sustained breach of yesterday's low at 1.5345 would signal decline has resumed and bring retest of 1.5327, then towards 1.5290/00. Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Sell at 1.2850Euro's broke below indicated support at 1.2856 (previous resistance) this morning and has tumbled below the Ichimoku cloud, signaling top has been formed at 1.2920 and consolidation with downside bias is seen for weakness towards 1.2744-54 (previous resistance and 50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.2588 to 1.2920), however, near term oversold condition should limit downside to 1.2715 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) and bring rebound later. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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