Friday, September 3, 2010

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 9-3-10

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: NFP Shows Solid Private Job Growth, Yen Tumbles, Commodity Currencies Soar

The Japanese yen is sharply lower in early US session after release of better than expected non-farm payroll report from US. Commodity currencies also soar broadly on risk appetite. European majors are relatively steady and Swiss Franc is indeed dropping sharply following yen. The headline non-farm payroll number showed -54k contraction only comparing to expectation of -105k. Prior month's number was also revised up to -54k. More importantly, private sector job market showed 67k expansion versus expectation of around 40k while prior month's data was also revised up to an impressive 107k. Unemployment rate climbed from 9.5% to 9.6% as expected and is ignored by the markets. Markets will now face another test of ISM services later in US morning.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 83.99; (P) 84.27; (R1) 84.55; More.

USD/JPY's rebound from 83.66 extends further today and reaches as high as 85.20 so far in early US session. It now looks likely that such rebound is the third leg of consolidation from 83.61. Intraday bias will now be cautiously on the upside and further rise should be seen to 85.89 resistance and above to continue the consolidations. Though, we'd still expect upside to be limited well below 88.25 support turned resistance and bring another fall. On the downside, decisive break of 83.61 will confirm resumption of recent down trend and should target 80 psychological level next.

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ECB Extends Refinancing Operations, Raises Growth and Inflation Outlooks

At today's ECB meeting, President Trichet announced to provide unlimited liquidity at least until mid-January 2010 while leaving the main refinancing rate unchanged at 1% for a 17th month. Meanwhile, ECB economists raised GDP growth and inflation forecasts for 2010 and 2011, providing a more upbeat outlook for the 16-nation region.

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Economic Indicators Update




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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
07:15 CHF CPI M/M Aug 0.00% 0.00% -0.70%
07:15 CHF CPI Y/Y Aug 0.30% 0.40% 0.40%
07:55 EUR German PMI Services Aug F 57.2 58.5 58.5
08:00 EUR Eurozone PMI Services Aug F 55.9 55.6 55.6
08:30 GBP PMI Services Aug 51.3 52.9 53.1
09:00 EUR Eurozone Retail Sales M/M Jul 0.10% 0.20% 0.00% 0.20%
09:00 EUR Eurozone Retail Sales Y/Y Jul 1.10% 0.60% 0.40% 1.20%
12:30 USD Change in Non-Farm Payrolls Aug -54K -105K -131K -54K
12:30 USD Unemployment Rate Aug 9.60% 9.60% 9.50%
14:00 USD ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite Aug 53.5 54.3
Candlesticks and Ichimoku Intraday Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD – Hold long entered at 1.2780

Euro's intra-day breach of 1.2856 signals recent rise from 1.2588 low has resumed and gain to indicated upside target at 1.2890/00 would be seen, however, loss of upward momentum should prevent sharp move beyond resistance at 1.2923 and risk from there has increased for a retreat later.

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Trade Idea Update: USD/JPY – Buy at 84.50

Dollar's intra-day rally partly due to cross-selling in Japanese yen signals the fall from 85.91 has ended at 83.66 and as indicated in our previous update that further consolidation within 83.58-85.91 range would take place and mild upside bias is seen for further gain to 85.50/60, however, said upper range should hold from here. Only a break of this resistance would turn outlook mildly bullish for a major correction of early downtrend to 86.40/50.

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Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

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