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Daily Report: Dollar Recovers on Talk of Modest QE IIDollar recovers mildly overnight on talk that the upcoming new quantitative easing program from Fed would be a relatively modest one comparing to recent speculations. It's believed that Fed officials are weighing different options for the moment and would probably announce purchases of a relatively small amount of treasuries, leaving the question of more purchase open, depending on data. It would be different from original speculations of a massive program with a finite end, like they did in 2009. The talk gave dollar some support and limit gold's attempt to break 1300 level decisively. Nevertheless, momentum in the greenback is so far very mild and risk is still on the downside against European majors and Aussie. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
AUD/USD Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 0.9572; (P) 0.9608; (R1) 0.9644; More AUD/USD is losing some upside momentum with mild bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD. Nevertheless, further rally is still expected with 0.9461 support intact. Current rise is still in favor to continue to retest 0.9849 high. However, note that break of 0.9461 support will suggest that a short term top is formed. In such case, deeper pull back would be seen to rising channel support (now at 0.9055) instead. |
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| Special Reports |
Net Shorts In USD Expanded Further, EUR Shifted To Positive TerritoryTo dump the dollar' remained the theme in the FX market and CFTC's Commitments of Traders report showed that net shorts in USD grew for a third straight week to $16B for the week ended September 21. Major beneficiaries from the broad-based USD weakness were high-yielder such as AUD and NZD. Net length in Japanese yen was halved as the government intervened by buying USD and selling JPY. EUR returned to the positive territory for the first time since December 2009 as the single currency benefited from the 'anti-USD' trades. GBP is the only currency that stayed in the negative territory with USD last week. |
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| Candlesticks and Ichimoku Intraday Trade Ideas | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Hold long entered at 1.3455Failure to extend intra-day rebound and current retreat from 1.3473 suggests caution on our long position entered at 1.3455 and yesterday's low at 1.3425 must hold to retain bullishness for another rebound, above said resistance would signal the pullback from yesterday's high of 1.3507 has ended and bring resumption of upmove for retest of this level, then towards 1.3530 and possibly 1.3550 before correction. Trade Idea: USD/JPY – Buy at 83.80As the greenback has remained under pressure, suggesting the decline from 85.94 is still in progress and may extend weakness to 84.00/05 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 82.87 to 85.94), however, loss of near term momentum would limit downside to 83.70/75 (100% projection of 85.94 to 84.26 measuring from 85.40) and reckon 83.50 would hold from here, bring rebound later. | Suggested Readings | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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