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Mid-Day Report: Swiss Franc Tumbles after SNB Lowered Inflation Forecasts, Euro Jump on Spain Bond AuctionSwiss Franc drops sharply against Euro and dollar after SNB left rates unchanged and lowered its inflation forecast. The three month Libor was left unchanged at 0.00-0.75% as widely expected and the bank intends to keep Libor within the lower part of the target range at around 0.25%. The most important point from the accompanying statement is the downward revision in both inflation projections. The path of the new inflation forecasts was lower than that in June due to appreciation of the Swiss franc the declining momentum in the global economy. Inflation is projected to sink to 0% in 1Q11 and SNB noted that it could even temporarily turn negative. Overall, the inflation for 2010 is expected to average at 0.8% while 2011 is expected to average at 0.3%. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
USD/CHF Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 0.9969; (P) 1.0008; (R1) 1.0071; More. USD/CHF jumps sharply to as high as 1.0146 in early US session. At this point, intraday bias remains cautiously on the upside for further rebound. However, note that break of 1.0276 resistance is still needed to confirm bottoming. Otherwise, recent down trend might still continue. Below 1.0048 minor support will flip intraday bias back to the downside for 0.9932 and then 0.9916 support. However, decisive break of 1.0276 will bring stronger rise towards 1.0624 resistance next. |
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RBNZ Leaves OCR Unchanged, Outlook More DovishAs expected, the RBNZ left the OCR unchanged at 3% as the global and domestic outlooks have weakened since the June Statement although recovery continued. The accompanying statement was more dovish than previously expected, reflecting disappointments from recent economic data and potential disruptions on economic activities after the earthquake on September 4. At the quarterly Monetary Policy Statement (MPS), the RBNZ revised down its growth and inflation forecasts. |
| Economic Indicators Update |
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Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF – Buy at 1.0075Dollar's rally after breaking indicated resistance at 1.0088 confirms a temporary low has been formed at 0.9933 and consolidation with upside bias is seen for retracement of recent decline to 1.0168 (previous support), then towards 1.0210 minor resistance, however, near term overbought condition should limit upside to 1.0250/55 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.0451 to 0.9933) and price should falter well below resistance at 1.0278. Trade Idea Update: USD/JPY – Buy at 84.65Despite dollar's intra-day rebound from 85.22, a break of yesterday's high at 85.78 is needed to confirm this week's upmove from 82.87 low has resumed and extend gain towards 86.11 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement), however, loss of near term upward momentum would limit upside to previous resistance at 86.39 and risk from there has increased for a correction later. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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