Thursday, September 23, 2010

Action Insight Daily Report 9-23-10

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Daily Report: Markets Consolidate in Tight Range, Eyes on Eurozone PMIs

Markets are generally in tight range today so far as major Asian markets are on holiday. Dollar remains generally soft against other major currencies except that some strength is seen against Canadian dollar. Gold also retreats mildly from record high and is consolidating below 1300 level. Euro remains the strongest major currency this week as supported by dollar's weakness as well as it's own strength in crosses. Focus will turn to PMI manufacturing and services today which are both expected to dip slightly in September to show slowing recovery. Meanwhile, attention will also be paid to US jobless claims and existing home sales.

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Featured Technical Report

EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.90; (P) 112.41; (R1) 113.36; More

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains on the upside for the moment with 111.45 minor support intact Further rally is expected to be seen to 114.72 key resistance next. On the downside, below 111.45 will suggest that a short term top is likely formed, possibly with bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD. In such case, deeper retreat would be seen first. But after all, outlook will remain bullish as long as 109.54 resistance turned support holds.

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Special Reports

Fed Paves The Way For Further Easing

At the September FOMC meeting, the Fed did not announce any new asset-buying program. Yet, the tone of the accompanying statement signaled that policymakers were turning to that direction. At the policy guidance paragraph, the Fed said that it will continue to 'monitor the economic outlook and financial developments and is prepared to provide additional accommodation if needed to support the economic recovery and to return inflation, over time, to levels consistent with its mandate'. Moreover, although the FOMC staff will not publish a new set of economic projections until November, the wordings in the statement indicate that both of growth and inflation forecasts are lowered.

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Economic Indicators Update


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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
22:45 NZD GDP Q/Q Q2 0.20% 0.50% 0.60% 0.50%
7:30 EUR German PMI Manufacturing Sep A 57.6 58.2
7:30 EUR German PMI Services Sep A 57.2 57.2
8:00 EUR Eurozone PMI Manufacturing Sep A 54.5 55.1
8:00 EUR Eurozone PMI Services Sep A 55.5 55.9
12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 450K 450K
14:00 USD Leading Indicators Aug 0.10% 0.10%
14:00 USD Existing Home Sales Aug 4.10M 3.83M
14:30 USD Natural Gas Storage 82B 103B
Candlesticks and Ichimoku Intraday Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: USD/CHF – Sell at 0.9950

Dollar’s selloff after breaking recent low at 0.9933 and previous chart support at 0.9910 (2009 low) signals medium term downtrend remains in progress and although price has recovered from 0.9838 (yesterday’s low), upside should be limited to the Kijun-Sen (now at 0.9913) and renewed selling interest should emerge below previous minor support at 0.9957 and bring another decline.

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Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Buy at 1.3300

This week’s rally after breaking previous resistance at 1.3160 signals early upmove from 1.1876 low remains in progress and although price has retreated from yesterday’s high of 1.3441, pullback should be limited to the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.3354 and renewed buying interest should emerge well above 1.3280 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.3020 to 1.3441) and bring another upmove later.

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Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights


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