Friday, September 24, 2010

Action Insight Daily Report 9-24-10

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Daily Report: Yen Lower on Rumors of Intervention

Yen is sharply lower today on speculations of intervention from Japan. Finance minister Yoshihiko Noda declined to comment. USD/JPY jumped last week as Japan intervened for the first time in six years and rebounded strongly from 15 year low of 82.98. Nevertheless, there is still some difficulty for USD/JPY to break through 86 level. Japan has made it clear that 82 is the level of defense and it seems that they're acting ahead of that to give a signal to the markets of their determination. In addition, there are speculation that BoJ Governor Shirakawa may resign but this is quickly denied.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 84.19; (P) 84.43; (R1) 84.61; More.

USD/JPY's strong rebound and break of 85.01 minor resistance suggests that retreat from 85.92 is possibly finished at 84.28 already. Though, there is no follow through buying yet. Intraday bias is turned neutral for the moment. On the downside, below 84.28 will bring deeper pull back. But still, considering risk of further intervention, we'd expect strong support at around 83 level to contain downside. On the upside, break of 85.92 resistance is needed to confirm that rebound from 82.86 has resumed. Otherwise, we'll stay neutral first.

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EURUSD's Rally As Anti-dollar Trade Appears Overextended

The euro has outperformed major currencies since last week. Although news from peripheral European economies reignited concerns about sovereign risks in these countries and widened yield spreads, successful bond auctions alleviated the worries. Moreover, intervention on Japanese yen and heated speculations about Fed's expansion of QE measures have helped drive capitals to the single currency. Currently trading around the highest level in 5 months, EURUSD has surpassed 1.3220 (200-day MA) and 1.3330 (August high). The technical backdrop is bullish and will likely trigger further buying. While the single currency may rise further as weakness in US economic data may trigger the Fed to announce more easing policies later this year while the ECB will likely hold monetary stance unchanged, the euro's current rally has somehow overextended and caution is advised on long positions.

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Economic Indicators Update


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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
08:00 EUR German IFO - Business Climate Sep 106.4 106.7
08:00 EUR German IFO - Current Assessment Sep 108.7 108.2
08:00 EUR German IFO - Expectations Sep 104 105.2
09:00 CHF SNB Quarterly Bulletin -- --
12:30 USD Durable Goods Orders Aug -0.80% 0.40%
12:30 USD Durables Ex Transportation Aug 1.00% -3.70%
14:00 USD New Home Sales Aug 293K 276K
Candlesticks and Ichimoku Intraday Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: USD/CHF – Sell at 0.9950 or buy at 0.9750

Although the greenback has retreated after faltering below the Ichimoku cloud bottom and retest of yesterday's low of 0.9805 is likely, loss of downward momentum should prevent sharp fall below 0.9780/85 (50% projection of 1.0075 to 0.9838 measuring from 0.9901) and reckon 0.9750/55 (61.8% projection) would limit downside, bring another rebound later. Above intra-day resistance at 0.9883 would bring test of 0.9901 (yesterday's high)

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Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Buy at 1.3255

Although euro has rebounded after this morning's fall to 1.3286, above 1.3376/81 (current level of the Ichimoku cloud top and minor resistance) is needed to signal correction from 1.3441 has ended and bring retest of this level and later towards 1.3511 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.5145 to 1.1876), otherwise, further consolidation within the Ichimoku cloud area (now at 1.3252-1.3376) would take place, however, renewed buying interest should emerge around the lower Kumo and bring another rebound later.

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Suggested Readings

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