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Mid-Day Report: Dollar Sharply Lower as ADP Showed -10k ContractionDollar is sharply lower against Euro and Swissy in early US session after release of much worse than expected ADP employment report. The report showed the private job market unexpectedly contracted by -10k in August versus consensus of 20k expansion. Challenger job report showed planned layoff dropped -54.5% yoy in August. Dollar index extends earlier fall today and reaches as low as 82.33, way off yesterday's close of 83.20. Markets' focus will now turn to ISM manufacturing index to be released later in the US morning. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
USD/CHF Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.0102; (P) 1.0183; (R1) 1.0231; More. USD/CHF's fall extends further to as low as 1.0064 today so far and intraday bias remains on the downside to lower trend line support (now at 1.0040) and possibly further towards parity. Though, we'd anticipate strong support at around parity to contain downside, at least initially. However, sustained trading below parity will pave the way to 0.9916 key support level. On the upside, above 1.0180 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. But break of 1.0330 support turned resistance is needed to be the first sign of bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish. |
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| Special Reports |
No FOMC Member Sees Deflation Risks, Reinvestment For MBS Proceeds Mainly For Keeping Balance Sheet StableWhile Chairman Ben Bernanke said last week at the Jackson Hole conference that the Fed outlined several stimulus measures boost recovery and fight deflation, minutes for the August meeting unveiled that it will be far more difficult in execution that expected as Committee members do not appeared to be ready to enter into QE2. More surprisingly, the minutes stated that 'no member saw an appreciable risk of deflation'. This is in contrast with what we perceived over the past few weeks. ECB To Extend Full Allotment Of Refinancing Operations Towards Year-EndAt Thursday's ECB, president Trichet is expected to leave the main-refinancing rate unchanged at 1% and reiterate the view that current interest rates are 'appropriate' while 'the risks to the economic outlook are broadly balanced in an environment of uncertainty'. Market's focus will be on the press conference where Trichet will announce the new set of staff macroeconomic projections and extend emergency support for the Eurozone until early 2011. |
| Economic Indicators Update |
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| Candlesticks and Ichimoku Intraday Trade Ideas | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Trade Idea Update: USD/JPY – Buy at 83.65Despite intra-day brief fall to 83.67 (missed our long entry at 83.65), the greenback has rebounded from there and consolidation with mild upside bias is seen, however, break of intra-day resistance at 84.58 is needed to confirm low has been formed and bring stronger rebound to the Ichimoku cloud top (now at 84.97), then 85.12 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 85.91 to 83.83) and possibly towards 85.45/50. Having said that, price should falter well below resistance at 85.19 and further choppy trading within recent broad range of 83.58 to 85.91 would take place. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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