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Daily Report: Yen Sharply Lower as Japan Intervenes FinallyYen is sharply lower today as Japan intervened in the currency markets for the first time since 2004. It's a day after Prime minister Naoto Kan won party leadership election and Japan finally acts by selling yen unilaterally. Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshito Sengoku said that USD/JPY at 82 is the line of defense and the government is seeking to gain the understanding of the U.S. and Europe for the intervention. BoJ Governor Masaaki Shirakawa expressed the hope for intervention to stabilize the forex markets. It's estimated that the intervention would exceed JPY 100b. USD/JPY rebounds strongly from the 15 year low of 82.86 and breaches 85 level briefly. Yen is also seen significantly lower against other major currencies. Nikkei also jumps over 2.3% on the news. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
EUR/JPY Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 107.03; (P) 107.64; (R1) 108.51; More EUR/JPY jumps sharply to as high as 110.40 today on broad based weakness in yen. The break of 109.53 resistance indicates that rebound from 105.42 is still in progress. Intraday bias is now on the upside and further rise should be seen towards 161.8% projection of 105.42 to 109.54 from 105.79 at 112.45 next. On the downside, below 109.14 will suggest that a temporary top is formed and turn bias neutral first. |
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Preview of SNB Meeting: No Immediate Need for Rate HikeThe SNB will maintain the 3-month LIBOR target at 0.25% for an 18th month in September. Although economic growth has exceeded the central bank's expectations, inflation remained moderate. There's no immediate need for a rate hike at the moment. Concerning appreciation of Swiss franc, the SNB will reiterate its stance but we doubt much will be done in curbing the rise. Preview of RBNZ Meeting: A Pause in SeptemberAfter raising the policy rate at 2 consecutive meetings, we expect the RBNZ to leave the OCR unchanged at 3% this month. Both of growth and inflation have not evolved as strong as the central bank forecast in June and the earthquake in Christchurch last week may lead policymakers to revise down the economic forecasts. Given heightened uncertainty in the domestic and foreign growth prospects, the RBNZ will take a more cautious stance in determining the next step in its monetary policy. |
| Economic Indicators Update |
Attend The Futures & Forex Expo Las Vegas, September 23-25, at Caesars Palace, where industry experts will help Forex & Futures traders make profitable trading decisions. Register FREE | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Buy at 1.2910Yesterday's rally after breaking resistance at 1.2910-20 signals recent rise from 1.2588 low has resumed for a stronger retracement of early fall from 1.3334 to 1.3049 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.3334 to 1.2588), however, overbought condition should limit upside to 1.3095/00 (100% projection of 1.2642-1.2910 measuring from 1.2828) and reckon 1.3119 (1.618 times projection of 1.2625 to 1.2920 measuring from 1.2642) should hold. Trade Idea: USD/JPY – Buy at 84.05Although the greenback fell to a fresh 15-year low of 82.87 this morning, the MOF final took action and the intervention lifted the currency pair sharply higher to 85.14, signalling a temporary low has finally been formed 82.87 and retracement of intermediate decline from 88.12 and gain to 85.50 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 88.12 to 82.87) is seen, however, reckon 86.11 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) should limit upside and resistance at 86.39 should remain intact. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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