Thursday, September 2, 2010

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 9-2-10

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Euro Steady after ECB Holds Rates, Extends Loan Offerings, Raises Forecasts

Euro remains steady as ECB left rates unchanged at 1.00% and said it will extend its unlimited loan offerings into 2011. That include seven-day and one-month funding at fixed rates until at least January, as well as three-month loans in October, November and December. In addition, ECB raised growth forecasts for 2010 from 1.0% to 1.6%. Growth projection for 2011 was raised from 1.2% to 1.4%. Inflation is expected to be 1.5-1.7% in 2010 and 1.2-2.2% in 2011. Trichet noted that "current monetary policy stance remains accommodative" and that's necessary to "fostering sustainable economic growth, job creation and financial stability."

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Featured Technical Report

USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0087; (P) 1.0134; (R1) 1.0204; More.

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral and consolidations from 1.0064 might continue further. Though, short term outlook remains bearish with 1.0330 support turned resistance intact and recent decline is still expected to continue. Below 1.0064 will target parity next. Note that we'd anticipate strong support at around parity to contain downside, at least initially. However, sustained trading below parity will pave the way to 0.9916 key support level.

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:50 JPY Monetary Base Y/Y Aug 5.40% 6.30% 6.10%
01:30 AUD Trade Balance (AUD) Jul 1.89B 3.11B 3.54B 3.44B
05:45 CHF GDP Q/Q Q2 0.90% 0.80% 0.40%
05:45 CHF GDP Y/Y Q2 3.40% 2.60% 2.20%
07:15 CHF Retail Sales (Real) Y/Y Jul 4.80% 2.30% 1.00%
08:30 GBP PMI Construction Aug 52.1 53.9 54.1
09:00 EUR Eurozone PPI M/M Jul 0.20% 0.30% 0.30%
09:00 EUR Eurozone PPI Y/Y Jul 4.00% 3.90% 3.00%
09:00 EUR Eurozone GDP Q/Q Q2 P 1.00% 1.00% 1.00% 0.30%
09:00 EUR Eurozone GDP Y/Y Q2 P 1.90% 1.70% 1.70% 0.80%
11:45 EUR ECB Interest Rate Decision 1.00% 1.00% 1.00%
12:30 EUR ECB Press Conference -- --
12:30 USD Non-Farm Productivity Q2 F -1.80% -2.00% -0.90%
12:30 USD Unit Labor Costs Q2 F 1.10% 1.40% 0.20%
12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 472K 478K 473K
14:00 USD Pending Home Sales M/M Jul -1.50% -2.60%
14:00 USD Factory Orders Jul 0.50% -1.20%
Candlesticks and Ichimoku Intraday Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD – Hold long entered at 1.2780

As the single currency has eased after intra-day rebound to 1.2839, suggesting further consolidation would be seen, however, as long as intra-day support at 1.2776 holds, bullishness remains for recent rise from 1.2588 low to resume and break of resistance at 1.2856 would bring stronger retracement of early decline to 1.2903 and possibly 1.2923, however, break of latter level is needed to retain upside bias for stronger correction to 1.2990/00 later.

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Trade Idea Update: USD/JPY – Buy at 83.80

Despite dollar's retreat from yesterday's high of 84.67, as the rebound from 83.66 suggests further consolidation above recent 15-year low of 83.58 would take place, downside should be limited and bring another rebound later to said resistance, however, break there is needed to signal the fall from 85.91 has ended at 83.66 and then retracement of the aforesaid decline to 85.12

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