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Daily Report: Markets Stabilized from Risk Rally, Focus Turning to ECBDollar and yen stabilized a bit today. Asian equities are sharply higher following the 2.54% rally in DOW but somewhat failed to extend momentum further. The unexpectedly low trade surplus of Australia, at AUD 1.89b in July, which was almost half of expectation, added to signs of slowdown in global recovery. Swissy, on the other hand, is trying to regain strength after stronger than expected GDP report which showed 0.9% qoq, 3.4% yoy growth. After all, markets will likely stay in range ahead of ECB rate decision and press conference today. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
GBP/JPY Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 128.24; (P) 129.60; (R1) 130.56; More Touching of 130.61 minor resistance suggests that a temporary low is in place at 128.63 and turns bias neutral for the moment. Some sideway trading might be seen but we'd expect upside to be limited below 133.57 resistance and another fall. Below 128.63 will indicate that whole decline from 137.75 has resumed and should target a test on 126.73 low next. After all, we'd hold on to the bearish view that rebound from 126.73 is finished at 137.75 as long as 133.57 resistance holds. |
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ECB To Extend Full Allotment Of Refinancing Operations Towards Year-EndAt Thursday's ECB, president Trichet is expected to leave the main-refinancing rate unchanged at 1% and reiterate the view that current interest rates are 'appropriate' while 'the risks to the economic outlook are broadly balanced in an environment of uncertainty'. Market's focus will be on the press conference where Trichet will announce the new set of staff macroeconomic projections and extend emergency support for the Eurozone until early 2011. |
| Economic Indicators Update |
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Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Buy at 1.2780Although the single currency retreated after yesterday's rally to 1.2856, pullback should be limited to 1.2776-82 (current level of the Kijun-Sen, previous resistance as well as 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.2661 to 1.2856) and previous minor resistance at 1.2744 should hold, bring another upmove. Above said resistance would extend rise from temporary low of 1.2588 for a stronger retracement of recent decline to 1.2903 and possibly 1.2923, however, break of latter level is needed to retain upside bias for retracement of recent decline to 1.2990/00 later. Trade Idea: USD/JPY – Buy at 83.80Although the greenback retreated after yesterday's rebound from 83.66 to 84.67, reckon recent 15-year low of 83.58 would limit downside and bring another rebound later to said resistance, however, break there is needed to signal the fall from 85.91 has ended at 83.66 and then gain to the upper Kumo (now at 84.86) would follow. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Fundamental Highlights
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