Thursday, September 23, 2010

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 9-23-10

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Markets Back in Risk Off Mode after Poor Eurozone PMIs and US Jobless Claims

Markets seem to be returning to a risk off mode after Eurozone PMIs dragged down stocks. Sentiments are lower a bit more as US initial jobless claims expectedly rose back to 465k. AUD/USD is off yesterday's high near to 0.96 and is trading below 0.95. Meanwhile, USD/CAD also extends yesterday's rebound. Noticeable strength, though, is seen in Swissy where USD/CHF extends recent down trend to as low as 0.9833 so far.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9805; (P) 0.9893; (R1) 0.9949; More.

USD/CHF's fall resumes after brief consolidations and reaches as low as 0.9830 so far. Intraday bias remains on the downside and current fall should now target 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 1.0330 from 1.0624 at 0.9759 next. On the upside, above 0.9898 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. But break of 1.0181 resistance is needed to be the first sign of bottoming. Otherwise, outlook remains bearish.

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Fed Paves The Way For Further Easing

At the September FOMC meeting, the Fed did not announce any new asset-buying program. Yet, the tone of the accompanying statement signaled that policymakers were turning to that direction. At the policy guidance paragraph, the Fed said that it will continue to 'monitor the economic outlook and financial developments and is prepared to provide additional accommodation if needed to support the economic recovery and to return inflation, over time, to levels consistent with its mandate'. Moreover, although the FOMC staff will not publish a new set of economic projections until November, the wordings in the statement indicate that both of growth and inflation forecasts are lowered.

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Economic Indicators Update


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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
22:45 NZD GDP Q/Q Q2 0.20% 0.50% 0.60% 0.50%
07:30 EUR German PMI Manufacturing Sep A 55.3 57.6 58.2
07:30 EUR German PMI Services Sep A 54.6 57.2 57.2 57.2
08:00 EUR Eurozone PMI Manufacturing Sep A 53.6 54.5 55.1
08:00 EUR Eurozone PMI Services Sep A 53.6 55.5 55.9
12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 465K 450K 450K
14:00 USD Leading Indicators Aug 0.10% 0.10%
14:00 USD Existing Home Sales Aug 4.10M 3.83M
14:30 USD Natural Gas Storage 82B 103B
Candlesticks and Ichimoku Intraday Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF – Sell at 0.9950 or buy at 0.9780

Although the greenback has fallen after meeting renewed selling at 0.9901 (just below the Kijun-Sen) and weakness to 0.9780/85 (50% projection of 1.0075 to 0.9838 measuring from 0.9901) cannot be ruled out, loss of downward momentum should prevent sharp fall below 0.9750/55 (61.8% projection) and bring another rebound later.

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Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD – Buy at 1.3280

Euro's retreat after faltering below yesterday's high of 1.3441 adds credence to our view that further consolidation would take place and retracement to 1.3280 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.3020 to 1.3441) cannot be ruled out, however, renewed buying interest is likely to emerge there and bring another rally later.

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Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

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