Wednesday, September 22, 2010

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 9-22-10

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Mid-Day Report: Dollar Weakness Persists, Canadian Dollar Pares Gain after Poor Retail Sales

Dollar's selloff continues further today with EUR/USD breaking through August high of 1.3330 and is pressing 1.34 level. USD/CHF also dives to 2 1/2 low and is moving further away from parity. Dollar index breaches 80 level on broad based weakness in the greenback while gold rides on dollar's weakness and edges closer to 1300 level. Canadian dollar followed other majors and gained against dollar earlier today but retreats after release of worse than expected retail sales reports, which saw -0.1% mom fall in headline sales while ex-auto sales dropped -0.4% mom.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9924; (P) 0.9999; (R1) 1.0038; More.

USD/CHF's decline accelerates further to as low as 0.9872 today, breaking through 0.9916 key medium term support level. At this point, intraday bias remains on the downside and further decline should be seen towards 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 1.0330 from 1.0624 at 0.9759 next. On the upside, above 0.9982 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. But break of 1.0181 resistance is needed to be the first sign of bottoming. Otherwise, outlook remains bearish.

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Fed Paves The Way For Further Easing

At the September FOMC meeting, the Fed did not announce any new asset-buying program. Yet, the tone of the accompanying statement signaled that policymakers were turning to that direction. At the policy guidance paragraph, the Fed said that it will continue to 'monitor the economic outlook and financial developments and is prepared to provide additional accommodation if needed to support the economic recovery and to return inflation, over time, to levels consistent with its mandate'. Moreover, although the FOMC staff will not publish a new set of economic projections until November, the wordings in the statement indicate that both of growth and inflation forecasts are lowered.

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Economic Indicators Update




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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
00:30 AUD Westpac Leading Index M/M Jul 0.40% -- 0.00% -0.10%
04:30 JPY All Industry Activity Index M/M Jul 1.00% 1.00% 0.10% 0.20%
08:30 GBP BoE Minutes Sep 1--0--8 1--0--8 1--0--8
09:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial New Orders M/M Jul -2.40% -1.40% 2.50% 2.40%
09:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial New Orders Y/Y Jul 11.20% 16.20% 22.80% 22.70%
12:30 CAD Leading Indicators M/M Aug 0.50% 0.30% 0.40%
12:30 CAD Retail Sales M/M Jul -0.10% 0.60% 0.10%
12:30 CAD Retail Sales Less Autos M/M Jul -0.40% 0.40% -0.50%
14:00 USD House Price Index M/M Jul -0.10% -0.30%
14:00 EUR Eurozone Consumer Confidence Sep A -10 -11
14:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories -- -2.5M
22:45 NZD GDP Q/Q Q2 0.50% 0.60%
Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights


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