Thursday, September 9, 2010

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 9-9-10

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Aussie and Loonie Extend Rally on Positive Risk Sentiments

Commodity currencies extends this week's rally on positive risk sentiments as European equities are generally firm. Aussie continues to be the strongest one as supported by strong job market data earlier today. Meanwhile, Canadian dollar is supported by rate speculations after yesterday's BoC rate decision. On the other hand, Sterling remains the weaker European major after BoE left interests rate unchanged at 0.50%. Size of the asset purchase program was also maintained at GBP 200b. No detail was released with the usual short statement and focus will turn to minutes to be published on September 22. Dollar, Euro and yen are staying in range against each other.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/CAD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0309; (P) 1.0409; (R1) 1.0472; More.

USD/CAD's break of 1.0339 suggests that whole decline form 1.0671 has resumed. Intraday bias is back to the downside and further decline should be seen to 1.0246 support first and then 1.0106. Though, note that USD/CAD is still bounded in choppy sideway trading between 1.0106/0675. We'd expect strong support from around parity to contain downside and bring another rebound. On the upside, above 1.0393 will turn intraday bias neutral again. Note that more choppy consolidations would still be seen before a break of 1.0675 resistance.

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Action Insight Market Overview

Fed's Beige Book Unveiled Deceleration In US Growth

The Fed's Beige Book shows that US' economic growth moderated further during the period from mid-July to end-August. While the recovery continued to expand, it has shown 'widespread signs of a deceleration'. Of the 12 districts, 5 saw growth at 'a moderate pace', 5 pointed to 'positive developments or net improvements compared with the previous reporting period' and the rest showed 'mixed conditions or deceleration in overall economic activity'.

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BoC Raises Policy Rate to 1%, Delivers a Less Dovish Statement

The BOC raised its policy rate by +25 bps, taking the overnight target rate to 1%, in September. While it's the third consecutive hike since the central bank resumed the tightening cycle in June, financial conditions in Canada remained 'exceptionally stimulative' and is consistent with BOC's 2% inflation target. The post-meeting statement is not hawkish but it's less dovish that we and the market had anticipated. Perhaps this is the reason for loonie's rally after the announcement. That said, we retain our view that the BOC will pause in October before tightening again in December.

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Economic Indicators Update




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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:50 JPY BSI Manufacturing Q3 13.3 6.3 10
01:30 AUD Employment Change Aug 30.9K 25.0K 23.5K 25.0K
01:30 AUD Unemployment Rate Aug 5.10% 5.20% 5.30%
05:00 JPY Consumer Confidence Households Aug 42.4 43.6 43.3
06:00 EUR German CPI M/M Aug F 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
06:00 EUR German CPI Y/Y Aug F 1.00% 1.00% 1.00%
08:00 EUR ECB Monthly Report -- --
08:30 GBP Visible Trade Balance (GBP) Jul -8.7B -7.5B -7.4B -7.5B
11:00 GBP BoE Asset Purchase Target (GBP) Sep 200B 200B 200B
11:00 GBP BoE Interest Rate Decision 0.50% 0.50% 0.50%
12:15 CAD Housing Starts Aug 183K 184.5K 189.1K
12:30 CAD New Housing Price Index M/M Jul -0.10% 0.10% 0.10%
12:30 CAD International Merchandise Trade (CAD) Jul -2.7B -1.0B -1.1B
12:30 USD Trade Balance Jul -42.8B -47.6B -49.9B
12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 451K 470K 472K
14:30 USD Natural Gas Storage 51B 54B
15:00 USD Crude Oil Inventories 0.7M 3.4M
Candlesticks and Ichimoku Intraday Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD – Sell at 1.2790

Euro's rebound after intra-day brief fall to 1.2665 suggests further consolidation above yesterday's low at 1.2659 would take place and another bounce to 1.2764 is likely, however, renewed selling interest should emerge around 1.2790-97 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.2920 to 1.2659 and current level of the Ichimoku cloud top), bring another decline later.

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Fundamental Highlights

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