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Daily Report: Dollar Mixed ahead of FOMC, Irish Bond Auctions WatchedDollar is mixed as markets await FOMC rate decision and housing data today. The greenback is under much pressure recently on speculations of QEII. Fed is widely expected to stand pat today is actually not expected to do anything before mid-term election in November. The Fed may, however, revise lower its growth forecasts, signaling economic developments since the last FOMC meeting have deteriorated. Focus will be on hints in the forward-looking policy indicating additional easing in coming months. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
EUR/JPY Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 111.62; (P) 111.98; (R1) 112.28; More EUR/JPY's retreat from 112.96 extends further today and intraday bias is mildly on the downside. Further fall could be seen towards 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 110.15) But downside should be contained by 109.54 resistance turned support and bring another rise. A short term bottom should at least be formed at 105.42 and hence, we'd expect another rise after completing the brief consolidations. Above 112.34 minor resistance will flip intraday bias back to the upside and break of 112.96 will target 114.72 resistance and above. |
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| Special Reports |
Fed To Revise Lower Growth Forecast But Keep Monetary Stance Unchanged For NowWhile there have been rigorous speculations over the past week that the Fed will further expand the balance sheet to stimulate recovery, we expect the central bank will maintain the policy stance to keep interest rates at exceptionally low levels for an extended period time and to maintain the plan to reinvest agency and MBS proceeds. The Fed may, however, revise lower its growth forecasts, signaling economic developments since the last FOMC meeting have deteriorated. We will also see if there's hint in the forward-looking policy indicating additional easing in coming months. Japan's Unilateral Yen Intervention Is Not Going To SustainShortly after the re-election, Japan's Prime Minister Kan surprisingly conducted an intervention in the FX market by buying USD and selling JPY. The timing and the size of the intervention signaled the government's determination and commitment to curb yen's appreciation. The initial impact was encouraging as USDJPY rose more than 3% to 85.78 on September 15 from the low of 82.87 before the intervention and has stayed above 85 thereafter. The question now is whether the intervention is sustainable and if the unilateral intervention can defend the 82 level as implicitly stated by the government. |
| Economic Indicators Update |
Attend The Futures & Forex Expo Las Vegas, September 23-25, at Caesars Palace, where industry experts will help Forex & Futures traders make profitable trading decisions. Register FREE | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Candlesticks and Ichimoku Intraday Trade Ideas | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Trade Idea: GBP/USD – Sell at 1.5650Although cable's recovery after yesterday's selloff to 1.5536 suggests consolidation above this support would take place and test of the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.5610) cannot be ruled out, as top has been formed at 1.5730, reckon upside would be limited to the Ichimoku cloud area (now at 1.5633-60) and bring another decline later. Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Sell at 1.3120Although euro's rebound after holding above last Friday's low at 1.3020 suggests further consolidation above this support would be seen and recovery to yesterday's high of 1.3122 cannot be ruled out, however, as long as last week's high of 1.3160 holds, mild downside bias is seen for retracement of recent rise. A drop below said support at 1.3020 would bring correction to 1.2975 (previous minor support and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.2675 to 1.3160) but reckon minor support at 1.2955 would contain pullback and bring another rally later this week. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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