Thursday, September 30, 2010

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 9-30-10

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Euro's Rally Resumed after ECB Tender

Euro's rally against dollar resumes after brief retreat, as supported by news that ECB will lend banks EUR 29.4b in the six-day loans as the EUR 225b of 6-, 12-, 18- month longs expire. The figure is much lower than markets's expectations in general. Meanwhile, the EUR 104b of three month loan offered by ECB yesterday was also much less than market's expectations. This signals that money market in the Eurozone is in a relatively healthy state and reliance on ECB is waning. There was also some additional support from German job data, which saw unemployment rate dropped to 7.5% in September while unemployment dropped more than expected by -40k.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9730; (P) 0.9772; (R1) 0.9811; More.

USD/CHF's fall continues today and edges lower to 0.9707 in early US session. Intraday bias remains on the downside and further decline is expected to 0.9643 (2008 low) next. On the upside, above 0.9815 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. But after all, break of 1.0181 resistance is needed to confirm short term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
21:45 NZD Building Permits M/M Aug -17.80% -- 3.10% 2.40%
23:01 GBP GfK Consumer Confidence Sep -20 -19 -18
23:15 JPY Manufacturing PMI Sep 49.5 -- 50.1
23:50 JPY Retail Trade Y/Y Aug 4.30% 4.60% 3.90% 3.80%
23:50 JPY Industrial Production M/M Aug P -0.30% 1.20% -0.20% -0.20%
23:50 JPY Industrial Production Y/Y Aug P 15.40% 16.90% 14.20%
01:30 AUD Building Approvals M/M Aug -4.70% 0.00% 2.30%
02:00 NZD NBNZ Business Confidence Sep 13.5 -- 16.4
05:00 JPY Housing Starts Y/Y Aug 20.50% 10.20% 4.30%
07:55 EUR German Unemployment Change Sep -40K -20K -17K -20K
07:55 EUR German Unemployment Rate Sep 7.50% 7.60% 7.60%
09:00 EUR Eurozone CPI Estimate Y/Y Sep 1.80% 1.80% 1.60%
12:30 CAD GDP M/M Jul -0.10% -0.10% 0.20%
12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 453K 460K 465K
12:30 USD GDP (Annualized) Q2 F 1.70% 1.80% 1.60%
12:30 USD GDP Price Index Q2 F 1.90% 1.90% 1.90%
13:45 USD Chicago PMI Sep 56 56.7
14:30 USD Natural Gas Storage 68B 73B
Candlesticks and Ichimoku Intraday Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF – Buy at 0.9670

Despite intra-day resumption of decline to indicated downside target at 0.9708 (50% projection of 1.0119 to 0.9778 measuring from 0.9878), loss of near term downward momentum should limit downside to 0.9667/76 (61.8% projection of 1.0119-0.9778 measuring from 0.9878 and 50% projection of 1.0183 to 0.9778 measuring from 0.9878) and previous chart support at 0.9630 should hold, bring rebound later.

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Trade Idea Update: USD/JPY – Hold long entered at 83.20

Despite intra-day resumption of decline to 83.16, loss of near term downward momentum should limit downside and reckon recent 15-year low at 82.87 would hold, bring rebound later to the Kijun-Sen (now at 83.55), however, a break above there is needed to suggest an intra-day low is possibly formed and bring retracement to the Ichimoku cloud area (now at 83.80-92) and later towards previous resistance at 84.09 before renewed selling interest emerges.

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Suggested Readings

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