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Daily Report: Kan Pledges Firm Measures as USD/JPY Approaches 15 Year Low AgainAs USD/JPY is approaching 15 year low of 82.86 again, Japan Prime Minister Naoto Kan said today that the government will take "firm measures" on intervention to curb yen strength. Meanwhile, Kan also expects BoJ to "closely cooperate with the government and take further necessary policy actions to end deflation." It's believed that Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda sees 82 level in USD/JPY as the line of defense. Japan sold JPY 2.12T in the market in September as the country intervened in the FX markets for the first time since 2004. So, beware of another massive round of intervention as USD/JPY dips into 82/83 zone. Data released from Japan saw household spending rose 1.7% yoy in August while unemployment rate dropped to 5.1%. National core CPI is still deep in deflation territory for -1.0% yoy in August. |
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GBP/JPY Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 130.49; (P) 131.60; (R1) 132.36; More GBP/JPY dropped further to as low as 130.84 as correction from 135.03 extended. While another fall cannot be ruled out, we'd continue to expect strong support from 130.33 to continue downside and bring resumption of rise from 127.63 eventually. Above 133.73 will flip intraday bias back to the upside and break of 135.03 will target 137.75 key resistance next. However, decisive break of 130.33 support will argue that rebound from 127.63 has indeed finished and will turn focus back to this low instead. |
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Excess Liquidity Declines as European Banks Require Less Fund from ECBDemand for the 6-day tender and 3-month LTRO was much less than expected, indicating banks dependence of the ECB as a source of funding has dropped. The central bank lent 29.443B euro in the 6-day tender, expiring on October 6 with the number of participating banks falling to 50 from 78 in the July one. It also lent 104B euro in the 3-month LTRO, compared with 131.9B euro in the June operation. The 6-month LTRO of 18B euro, the 12-month LTRO of 75B euro and the 3-month LTRO of 131.9B euro expired today while the 6- and 12-month operations would not be renewed. The ECB aimed to use the new 6-day and 3-month operations to smoothen the transition period. |
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Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF – Buy at 0.9670Despite intra-day resumption of decline to indicated downside target at 0.9708 (50% projection of 1.0119 to 0.9778 measuring from 0.9878), loss of near term downward momentum should limit downside to 0.9667/76 (61.8% projection of 1.0119-0.9778 measuring from 0.9878 and 50% projection of 1.0183 to 0.9778 measuring from 0.9878) and previous chart support at 0.9630 should hold, bring rebound later. Trade Idea Update: USD/JPY – Hold long entered at 83.20Despite intra-day resumption of decline to 83.16, loss of near term downward momentum should limit downside and reckon recent 15-year low at 82.87 would hold, bring rebound later to the Kijun-Sen (now at 83.55), however, a break above there is needed to suggest an intra-day low is possibly formed and bring retracement to the Ichimoku cloud area (now at 83.80-92) and later towards previous resistance at 84.09 before renewed selling interest emerges. | Suggested Readings | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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