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Daily Report: Aussie Dips after RBA Minutes, BoC Rate Decision AwaitedAussie dips again today after RBA delivered a less hawkish than expected minutes. It's hard to describe the minutes as dovish since RBA is clearly positioned for another rate hike. However, markets are starting to price out the chance of a November hike after the minutes and some believe that RBA would push the next hike further to next January. In the minutes, RBA concluded overall "that it would be appropriate to hold the cash rate steady for the time being, pending evaluation of further information." The decision to keep rates unchanged in October was "finely balanced". But "rates would need to rise at some point if the economy evolved in line with the central scenario of a gradual tightening in resource utilization, as this would most likely result in a gradual strengthening of inflation pressures". After all, note that that timing of next hike will still be heavily dependent on Q3 inflation data to be released next week. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
USD/JPY Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 81.10; (P) 81.29; (R1) 81.46; More. USD/JPY recovers mildly today as consolidations from 80.88 continues. Intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. While stronger rise cannot be ruled out, upside should be limited by 82.33 resistance and bring fall resumption. Below 80.88 will target 61.8% projection of 92.87 to 82.86 from 85.92 at 79.73, which is close to 79.75 low. However, break of 82.33 will indicate that a short term bottom is formed and bring stronger rebound towards 83.15/83.97 resistance zone. |
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BOC To Leave Rates Unchanged At 1%The Bank of Canada will very likely leave the overnight rate unchanged at 1%, after raising it thrice, each by +25 bps, since June 2010. The market currently factors in only 9% chance of a +25 bps hike in October as both global and domestic economic developments justify the pause. The policy statement may be more dovish that the September one as Governor Mark Carney may echo the cautious comments he made 3 weeks ago. The BOC will update its growth outlook on October 20, a day after the BOC meeting, and downgrades on economic forecasts are anticipated. RBA On Hold, Strength In Aussie Eased Needs For TighteningAccording to the RBA minutes, the decision to leave the cash rate unchanged at 4. 5% was 'finely balanced'. The central bank considered raising interest rates at the October meeting but global economic uncertainty and rising Australian dollar have eased inflationary pressures. While policymakers concluded that it would be appropriate to hold the cash rate steady for now, they acknowledged it could not wait indefinitely to see whether risks materialized. The RBA pledged to act with flexibility, pending evaluation of further information at the next meeting. |
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Trade Idea: USD/CHF – Buy at 0.9555Although the greenback has rebounded after finding renewed buying interest at 0.9541 yesterday, a breach of resistance at 0.9650 is needed to retain bullishness and signal the rise from 0.9463 low has resumed for a stronger retracement of recent decline to 0.9690/00 but reckon resistance at 0.9728 would remain intact. Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Sell at 1.4000Despite overnight rebound to 1.4006, as price has retreated from there, suggesting consolidation with downside bias remains but only break of support at 1.3830 (yesterday's low) would retain bearishness and extend the fall from 1.4161 top for a stronger retracement of recent upmove to 1.3800 but support at 1.3755 should remain intact. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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