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Mid-Day Report: Euro, Sterling Lifted by PMI; Yen Mixed Post BoJEuro is lifted by expected upward revision in PMI services today. The index was revised up from initial reading of 53.6 to 54.1, which suggests better strength in the economic recovery. Though, gain is limited so far as the news was offset by a weak retail sales report which came in at -0.4% mom, 0.6% yoy. Also, there were concern on the Eurozone debt situation after Moody's said that Ireland's Aa2 rating would be cut one notch considering the huge EUR 50b pledge to save the banking sector. On the hand hand, Sterling is also mildly firm after PMI services unexpected improved to 52.8 in September. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
EUR/USD Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.3632; (P) 1.3718 (R1) 1.3770; More. EUR/USD's break of 1.3791 suggests that recent rise has resume after brief consolidations. Intraday bias is back to the upside and further rise should be seen towards 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.3330 from 1.2587 at 1.4024, which is close to 1.4 psychological level. Nevertheless, considering mild bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD, break of 1.3636 support will indicate that a short term top is formed and bring deeper correction first. |
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BOJ Accelerates Easing Measures: Lowering Rates and Buying AssetsThe Bank of Japan accelerates it easing policy as economic outlook deteriorates. The central bank cuts the collateral overnight call rate to 0-0.1% from 0.1% and decides to create a 5 trillion yen fund to buy government bonds and other asset. The fixed-rate credit program is unchanged at 30 trillion yen. Policymakers forecast the pace of economic improvement in the country will slow for some time before returning to the moderate recovery path. Japanese yen declined against the dollar and the euro after the announcement. The 10-year bond yield also plunged to the lowest level to 7 years. RBA Leaves Rate At 4.5%, Aussie SlumpsSelloff in Aussie suggests that investors are obviously disappointed by the RBA's decision to keep the cast rate unchanged at 4.5%. Given the hawkish comments from policymakers over the past weeks, the decision caught the market by surprise. Recent soft data probably made the central bank more cautious in implementing tightening. We retain the view that one more hike will take place in the fourth quarter whereas the timing will be data-dependent. Both ECB And BOE To Leave Rates Unchanged, Though Against Different BackdropsWe believe will remain cautiously optimistic on the Eurozone's economic outlook as economic data released since the last meeting were resilient. Meanwhile, lower demand for liquidity from banks and great improvement of recent loan data may lead President Tricher to deliver a mildly more hawkish tone in October. That said, the central bank will leave the main refinancing rate unchanged at 1% and reiterate that current levels of interest rates are appropriate in an environment of balanced risks on the macroeconomic outlook. |
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Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD – Buy at 1.3715Although the single currency has maintained a firm undertone after intra-day rally and retest of yesterday's high of 1.3809 would be seen, break there is needed to confirm upmove has resumed and extend gain to 1.3850/55 (50% projection of 1.3381 to 1.3809 measuring from 1.3637), however, loss of upward momentum would limit upside to 1.3900/05 (61.8% projection) and risk from there has increased for a correction later. | Suggested Readings | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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