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Daily Report: Yen Mildly Lower on BoJ SpeculationsThe Japanese yen is mildly lower as the week starts as markets are preparing for more easing measures from Bank of Japan to be announced tomorrow. It's believed that there will be additional monetary easing measures to accompany Japan's currency market intervention to optimize the effectiveness on curbing yen's strength. BoJ is expected to expand the JPY 30T credit program for lenders to boost bank lending. However, the strength in USD/JPY has been weak so far. The pair was shot up as Japan intervened for the first time in more than six years last month but failed below 86 level and continued to crawl back towards 82.86 low since then. It's speculated that in the longer-term, Fed will likely take even more easing measures comparing to BoJ. Anyway, we'll keep an eye on any sign of near term reversal near to 83 level in USD/JPY. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
USD/JPY Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 83.06; (P) 83.32; (R1) 83.47; More. USD/JPY's strong recovery today was limited below 83.92 minor resistance and the pair settles in tight range for the moment. Intraday bias remains neutral with 4 hours MACD staying above signal line. While further decline cannot be ruled out, we'd maintain that considering risk of further intervention, strong support should be seen at around 83 level to contain downside. On the upside, above 83.92 minor resistance will flip intraday bias back to the upside for upper side of recent range of 82.86/85.92. However, break of 85.92 resistance is needed to confirm that rebound from 82.86 has resumed. Otherwise, we'll stay neutral first. |
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| Special Reports | |
Get Ready For BOE's QERecent discussions about additional easing from the Fed have caused the dollar to fall against almost all currencies. Everyone in the market is paying extra attention to US economic data, trying to estimate when the central bank will announced new bond-buying programs. The situation has masked the fact that the US is only one of the several advanced countries that are struggling to boost economic recoveries and are increasingly likely to expand their balance sheets. In its September minutes, the BOE revealed a more dovish outlook and signaled the possibility of expanding its asset-purchase program. Currently trading at 1.58/59 against the dollar, the pound has risen for 3 consecutive weeks with gains 10% from May's low. We believe a large part of the rally was driven by the broad-based weakness in USD, rather than strong underlying fundamentals. |
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| Candlesticks and Ichimoku Intraday Trade Ideas | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Trade Idea: USD/CHF – Buy at 0.9740Despite initial brief fall to 0.9738, as the greenback has rebounded, retaining our view that further consolidation above recent low of 0.9708 would take place and as long as this level holds, mild upside bias remains for another leg of corrective rebound to 0.9810, however, only break of resistance at 0.9844 would signal retracement of recent decline has commenced for stronger rebound to previous resistance at 0.9878, then test of 0.9901. Trade Idea: GBP/USD – Sell on break of 1.5750Although cable has retreated after Friday's rally to 1.5874, break of 1.5750-59 (previous resistance and current level of the Ichimoku cloud bottom) is needed to signal the rebound from 1.5670 has ended at 1.5874 and bring test of 1.5705, below would confirm and bring retest of 1.5670 support later, then towards 1.5642. | Suggested Readings | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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